Fooled by Randomness - Deepstash

It does not matter how frequently something succeeds if failure is too costly to bear. ( Like playing russian roulette)

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One of the most influential book of our times.

Fooled by Randomness

Fooled by Randomness

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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We Are Obsessed With Outcomes

Quality of a decision cannot be solely judged based on its outcome.

The epic poet (Homer) did not judge his heroes by the result: heroes won and lost battles in a manner that was totally inde...

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The notion of path, as opposed to outcome, indicates that it is not a mere MBA-style scenario analysis, but the examination of a sequence of scenarios along the cour...

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For an idea to have survived so long across so many cycles is indicative of its relative fitness. Noise, at least some noise,was filtered out.

People tend to infer that because some invention...

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It is frequently said in the markets, Bad trades catch up with you.

Mathematicians of probability give that a fancy name: ergodicity. It means, roughly, that (under certain c...

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How Often Should We Check Our Portfolio ?

Over a short time increment, one observes the variability of the portfolio (variance), not the returns. Our emotions are not designed to understand the point. We think with our emotions and there i...

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A negative pang is not offset by a positive one (some behavioral economists estimate the negative effect to be up to 2.5 the magnitude of a positive one). It leads to an emotional deficit

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If I am going to be forced to eat pork, it better be of the best kind.

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I can use data to disprove a proposition, never to prove one. I can use history to refute a conjecture, never to affirm it.

There are only two types of theor...

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There is no rational reason to keep a painting you would not buy at its current market rate.

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