We are exposed to biases that influence our ability to make good decisions. <ul><li>We are quick to jump to conclusions because we fail to search for information that might disprove our thoughts.</li><li>We're overconfident. We look for information that fits our ideas and ignore information that doesn't.</li></ul>Knowing these and other biases is not enough. We need a framework for making decisions.

Not Making Good Decisions

<ul>
<li>Narrow framing: The tendency to define our choices in binary terms. We ask, "should I, or shouldn't I?" instead of “What are the ways I could...?”</li>
<li>Confirmation bias: People tend to select the information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions. </li>
<li>Short-term emotion: When we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings occupy our minds. And this doesn't add any new information that could benefit us. </li>
<li>Overconfidence: People often think they know more than they actually do about how the future will unfold.</li>
</ul>

The Four Villains of Decision Making

<ul><li>Counter narrow framing by widening your options. Expand your set of choices.</li><li>Confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. Analyze and test your assumptions to overcome the bias.</li><li>Short-term emotion will tempt you to make the wrong choice. So distance yourself before deciding.</li><li>Prepare to be wrong. Don't be overconfident about how the future will unfold.</li></ul>

Defeating Decision-Making Villains

<div>
You're probably not as effective at making decisions as you could be.
This article explores Chip and Dan Heaths' new book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307956393/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0307956393&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=farnamstreet-20">Decisive</a>. It's going to help us make better decisions both as individuals and in groups.
But before we get to that, you should think about a tough decision you're grappling with right now. Having a decision working in your mind as you're reading this post will help make the advice in here tangible.
Ok, let's dig in.
- Daniel Kahneman
We're quick to jump to conclusions because we give too much weight to the information in front of us and we fail to search for new information, which might disprove our thoughts.
Nobel Prize winning Psychologist Daniel Kahneman called this tendency "what you see is all there is." But that's not the only reason we don't make good decisions - there are many others.
We're overconfident. We look for information that fits our thoughts and ignore information that doesn't. We are overly influenced by authority. We choose the short-term over the long-term. Once we've made a decision we find it hard to change our mind. In short, our brains are flawed. I could go on.
Knowing about these and other biases isn't enough; it doesn't help us fix the problem. We need a framework for making decisions.
In <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307956393/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0307956393&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=farnamstreet-20">Decisive</a>, the Heaths introduce a four-step process designed to counteract many biases.
In keeping with Kahneman's visual metaphor, the Heaths refer to the tendency to see only what's in front of us as a "spotlight" effect.
And that, in essence, is the core difficulty of decision making.
What's in the spotlight will rarely be everything we need to make good decisions, but we won't always remember to shift the light.
Most of us rarely use a process for thinking about things. If we do use one it's likely to be the pros-and-cons list. While better than nothing, this approach is still deeply flawed because it doesn't really account for biases.
<h2>The Four Villains of Decision Making</h2>

<ol>
	<li>
Narrow Framing: "... the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms. We ask, "Should I break up with my partner or not?" instead of "What are the ways I could make this relationship better?"</li>
	<li>
Confirmation Bias: "When people have the opportunity to collect information from the world, they are more likely to select information that supports their preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions." We pretend we want the truth, yet all we really want is reassurance.</li>
	<li>
Short-term Emotion: "When we've got a difficult decision to make, our feelings churn. We replay the same arguments in our head. We agonize about our circumstances. We change our minds from day to day. If our decision was represented on a spreadsheet, none of the numbers would be changing-there's no new information being added-but it doesn't feel that way in our heads."</li>
	<li>
Overconfidence: "People think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold."</li>
</ol>

The Heaths came up with a process to help us overcome these villains and make better choices. "We can't deactivate our biases, but ... we can counteract them with the right discipline." The nature of each of the four decision-making villains suggests a strategy for how to defeat it.
<blockquote>
1. You encounter a choice. But narrow framing makes you miss options. So ... Widen Your Options. How can you expand your set of choices? ...
2. You analyze your options. But the confirmation bias leads you to gather self-serving information. So ... Reality-Test Your Assumptions. How can you get outside your head and collect information you can trust? ...
3. You make a choice. But short-term emotion will often tempt you to make the wrong one. So ... Attain Distance Before Deciding. How can you overcome short-term emotion and conflicted feelings to make better choices? ...
4. Then you live with it. But you'll often be overconfident about how the future will unfold. So ... Prepare to Be Wrong. How can we plan for an uncertain future so that we give our decisions the best chance to succeed? ...
</blockquote>
They call this WRAP. "At its core, the WRAP model urges you to switch from "auto spotlight" to manual spotlight.
All in all this was a great <a href="http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/0307956393/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&amp;camp=1789&amp;creative=9325&amp;creativeASIN=0307956393&amp;linkCode=as2&amp;tag=farnamstreet-20">book</a>. We focus our efforts on analysis. If a decision is wrong the analysis must have been the problem. Not only does this ignore the fact that you can have 'bad outcomes' with good decisions but it also places your spotlight on the analysis at the cost of the process by which the decision was made.
Read this next: What Matters More in Decisions:<a href="https://www.farnamstreetblog.com/2013/03/what-matters-more-in-decisions-analysis-or-process/"> Analysis or Process?</a>
</div>

You're probably not as effective at making decisions as you could be. This article explores Chip and Dan Heaths' new book, Decisive. It's going to help us make better decisions both as individuals and in groups. But before we get to that, you should think about a tough decision you're grappling with right now.

The Four Villains of Decision Making

Not Making Good Decisions

The Four Villains of Decision Making

Defeating Decision-Making Villains

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