It is a decision-making tool for risky situations. The main point is that visualizing the worst-case scenarios lets you manage them rationally.There are 3 stages in fear-setting for any decision:<ul><li>Defining fears</li><li>Predicting the benefits of attempting an action</li><li>Calculating the costs of doing nothing.</li></ul>

Fear-setting

Stoics preferred to control fears and desires, rather than being their prisoners.That led them to visualize worst-case scenarios in detail, in order to control them.

The ideas behind fear-setting come from Stoicism

We are risk-averse by nature, and we're also imaginative. That gives us the capacity to overthink our fears until they become way worse than truth.The act of defining fears gets the worst-case scenario on the page. And in most cases, it’s not as bad as we thought, or as likely.

Our worst-case fears aren’t that bad

<ul><li>Fear-setting is for any decision that’s causing you stress. </li><li>It’s a way to stop fears from preventing success and spiraling out of control. </li><li>Fear-setting doesn’t work if you’re not honest.</li></ul>

How to use fear-setting

<ul><li>We like to keep things the same. And keeping things the same usually seems like the safest play. But that's not true.</li><li>Every choice comes with costs. So when you choose to keep things just as they are, you give up the benefits of everything else.</li><li>You have to count the costs of doing nothing.</li></ul>

Fear-setting counts the cost of doing nothing

The ideas behind fear-setting come from Stoicism. If you’ll allow me to slightly oversimplify: the Stoics liked a logical approach to life.

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Fear-setting is a decision-making tool for high-stakes situations. Tim Ferriss uses it to “avoid self-destruction, and make business decisions.” The key idea is that visualizing the worst-case outcomes lets you handle them rationally .

There are 3 stages in fear-setting for any decision:

<ul><li>Defining fears </li><li>Predicting the benefits of attempting an action </li><li>Calculating the costs of doing nothing </li> </ul>

It’s easier to choose actions once you visualize worst-case scenarios and ways to avoid them. It’s even easier when you can show the benefits of even just attempting the action.

If you add the real cost of doing nothing on top, overcoming fear is a piece of cake.

The ideas behind fear-setting come from <a dir="ltr" href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stoicism">Stoicism </a>. If you’ll allow me to slightly oversimplify: the Stoics liked a logical approach to life.

They preferred to control their fears and desires, rather than being a prisoner to them.

And who wouldn’t?

So one day, Tim Ferriss was poking around in a book, and found this quote:

“We suffer more often in imagination than in reality.” – Seneca (One of those Stoics)

That led him to visualize worst-case scenarios in detail, in order to control them.

But why does this make decision-making easier?

Let’s break it down.

Our Worst-Case Fears Aren’t That Bad (Or Likely)

Fear, in all its forms, makes us reluctant. We’re pretty risk-averse by nature. And we’re also pretty imaginative.

If you let them, your fears will tumble around inside, until they become way worse than truth.

The act of defining fears gets the worst-case scenario on the page. And guess what? It’s almost always not as bad as we thought , or as likely.

This alone is a big help, but it’s not all.

On the flip side of over-estimating the downside, we’re pretty good at misjudging benefits. It’s easy to justify an action when you realize the benefits of even just attempting it.

This sets a low barrier for action. You gain confidence by seeing there’s a decent upside whatever happens.

Fear-setting also causes us to think about how likely good outcomes are. An action seems way more sensible if the benefits are more impactful and more likely than your fears.

Fear-Setting Counts the Cost of Doing Nothing

Tim Ferriss also talks a lot about the problems with maintaining the status quo. We like to keep things the same. And keeping things the same usually seems like the safest play.

Every choice comes with costs . In this case, if you choose to keep things just as they are, then you give up the benefits of everything else.

You have to count the costs of doing nothing.

How Fear-Setting Works: 13 Steps to Make Hard Decisions

Here’s what you need to give fear-setting on go:

3 pieces of paper. 1 pen. Some honesty.

Each page is for a different part of fear-setting:

<ul><li>Defining fears </li><li>Benefits of Attempting an Action </li><li>Cost of doing nothing </li> </ul>

But first, we need a decision to work with.

Step 1: Identify the Decision You Are Having Trouble With

We need a decision for the exercise. So, what would it take to get the life you want? What actions are you putting off or hesitating over? This is the kind of moving we’re dealing with here.

Tim Ferriss used the month-long trip to London as a test. He needed to get away but also wanted to see if he could get himself out of his company without things falling apart.

I’ve faced similar decisions like moving around the world and deciding to start my own business.

Yours will probably be actions linked to your <a dir="ltr" href="https://dansilvestre.com/personal-goals/">personal goals </a>and <a dir="ltr" href="https://dansilvestre.com/career-goals/">career goals </a>. Think big and bold.

Step 2: Create 3 Columns on the First Page

OK, it’s time to grab that first page. We’re about to confront your fears.

I’ve got a template below that you can use or refer to.

Create 3 even columns. Label them:

Step 3: List Every Fear You Have About The Decision

In the ‘Define’ column, write down every fear you have. You’re creating the worst-case scenario, so don’t hold back.

<ul><li>Running out of money </li><li>Losing touch with colleagues and friends </li><li>Being embarrassed if it fails. </li><li>Not being happy </li><li>Making mistakes </li> </ul>

Literally anything that has ever worried you about the action you’re contemplating needs to go on the sheet – big and small.

You have to be able to look at the list and feel like it’s complete.

Step 4: Write Down Things You Can Do to Prevent Each Fear

For every fear about the worst-case, come up with a strategy to avoid it. Write these in the second column labeled ‘Prevent’.

Instead of just letting a fear roam around your brain – look at how hard it is to address. We’re coming up with ways to reduce the likelihood that the fear comes true.

You’re afraid that a new job will mean losing touch with the people in your current job. How might you prevent that?

<ul><li>Create a recurring reminder to call or message people </li><li>Schedule regular coffee meetups to stay in touch </li> </ul>

This shows you that the fears don’t have to happen just because you’re worried about them.

So do this for all of the fears, giving as many prevention ideas as you can.

Step 5: Write Down Ways To Repair Damage if the Fear Comes True

In the ‘Repair’ column come up with ideas to undo the damage if the bad outcome does happen.

Trying out a new business idea might mean losing your income and savings. Think about what you would do if that happened.

Could you get a job similar to the one you have now? Do you have assets you could sell? Would your skills and experience allow you to get a job in a different industry?

In a worst-case scenario, is there any way you could rebuild income and savings?

This does a couple of things:

It reduces the power of the fears . That’s because it forces you to think about what you would do in the absolute worst-case. And you’ll probably realize that isn’t even as bad as you thought.

It also helps decide just how relevant the fear is . We get that by asking how probable the outcomes are.

Step 6: Figure Out How Likely Each Worst-Case Scenario Is

You’ve defined fears and thought about ways to prevent and remedy them. Next is a really important step – looking at how likely the worst-case situation is.

Try stepping aside from the fear completely – be objective. Is this thing you’re worried about actually likely?

How often does it happen to people who try the same?

Give every fear a score from 1-10, where 1 is no chance and 10 is completely certain.

Once we know how likely each fear is, we can combine that with how much of an impact it would have if it happened.

Step 7: Figure Out the Impact of Each Fear in the First Column (1-10 scale)

Go through every fear and work out how bad the impact would be if it came true – using a 1-10 scale.

So a ‘1’ might be not at all important and have no real impact. A ‘10’ would be something that permanently made your life worse.

The mid-range is set-backs and road bumps of varying severity.

Worrying about losing touch with friends could be a 4 or 5 – it’s bad, but you can undo it. I feel pretty confident saying losing a limb is a 9 or 10.

Make sure you write the impact ratings next to the fears.

Step 8: Write Every Possible Benefit of An Attempt or Partial Success

Grab a new page, and get ready for a new perspective. We’re looking at benefits now.

Create a list of everything you would get out of even attempting the action. We’re taking a conservative approach here, by not presuming great success.

If you can show yourself the benefits of giving it a go – a rational plan can be made.

You’re listing everything you can think of here: emotional, financial, skills, experience, happiness, and relationships – no limits.

So, the benefits of taking a new job – even if it doesn’t work out – might include:

<ul><li>Meeting new people </li><li>Learning new skills </li><li>Figuring out what kind of work you don’t want to do </li><li>Spending more time with family, even just in the short term </li><li>Realizing what things you are relieved to have left behind in your old job </li><li>Having more creative ideas due to being in a new environment </li><li>Getting to try out different coffee shops near the new workplace </li><li>Never having to wonder if it would have worked out </li><li>Realizing that changing jobs isn’t a big deal in the future </li><li>More opportunities to travel </li><li>More time to work on side projects </li> </ul>

Can you see how some of these are pretty intangible? I created a pretty long list for a reason.

When you’re in a dark room afraid of changing jobs, ‘trying out different coffee shops’ isn’t going to chase the fear right away.

But these are the kinds of things that can impact your life. And that’s the mindset shift we’re after.

They don’t have to be huge, life-altering improvements to make a difference.

And benefiting from a decision doesn’t only happen when it works out – these all can come from trying something out.

Step 9: Figure Out How Likely Each Benefit Is (1-10 scale)

Go through and rate each benefit based on how likely they are to happen. Use a 1-10 rating scale again. Remember, the benefits should come from partial success or attempting the action.

Step 10: Figure Out the Impact of Each Benefit (1-10 scale)

Give another 1-10 score for how much positive impact each benefit would have.

These probability and impact scores give you some math to work with. They’re clear, and staring right back at you on the page. I imagine the rational Stoics would approve.

Fear-Setting: How to Define Your Fears

Fear-setting

The ideas behind fear-setting come from Stoicism

Our worst-case fears aren’t that bad

How to use fear-setting

Fear-setting counts the cost of doing nothing

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