The Black Swan - Deepstash

Black Swans are not inconsequential anomalies, but a significant phenomenon that shapes the very world we live in. Many historical events that drastically impacted our socities and lives were actua...

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The Black Swan

The Black Swan

by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

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For thousands of years, it was widely believed that all swans were white. Then in 1697, a Dutch explorer Willem de Vlamingh discovered black swans in Australia, debunking this universal “truth” ove...

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Taleb identifies 3 key features of Black Swans:
Rarity: Black Swans are outliers that can’t be reasonably expected to happen based on past events.
• They have a profound impact...

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The author calls an even a "Black Swan" if it's unpredictable not because it's random, but because our outlook on what's possible was too narrow. Imagine you’d known about the 9/11 attacks in advan...

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Based on the only things we can be certain of – what has happened in our lives in the past – we weave a narrative that makes sense and expect that the future simply must unfold this way. F...

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Another fallacy Taleb describes is called the ludic fallacy. This one explains why we do such bad jobs at getting the right insurance polic...

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• In Mediocristan environments, there’s a limit to the amount of randomness or deviation from the average. Inequalities exist, but they’re mild or controlled. Usually, there’re som...

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In Extremistan environments, there can be wild randomness and extreme deviations. Typically, there’re no physical constraints and no known upper/lower limits (e.g. knowledge, finan...

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