Coronavirus, synchronous failure and the global phase-shift - Deepstash
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1.1 The mortality rate could be at least ten times worse than flu

Compared to previous major disease outbreaks like Sars and Mers, the Coronavirus has a much lower mortality rate. The best available data suggests that the death rate appears to be less than 3 percent, but there are questions about its reliability. For patients over 80 years old, the mortality rate is 14.8 percent; for 70 years and over, 8 percent; for 60 years and over, 3.6 percent; for 50 years and over 1.3 percent; for 40 years and over 0.4 percent; and for younger,

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1.2 The infection rate is much worse than we thought

Scientists are racing to understand how rapidly Coronavirus can spread. Key metric is the basic reproduction number (R0)- Expected number of infected cases directly generated by one case of infection. If the reproduction number goes below one, it means that the epidemic can be expected to die out soon. Over time the reproduction number seems to be somewhat higher than originally hoped. A study published on 24th February found that two-thirds of infected people travelling globally are not being detected.

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1.3 Coronavirus is circulating in communities in the US, UK and Europe

If we assume that 400 people have been infected but undetected, the number of infected by the end of the week would reach 3,600. if the same process continues for another week, we are already at 32,400 by week two of our thought experiment. By week three, we reach 291,600 and by week four we reach 2.6 million, and by week five 23.6M, and week six, we’re at 212.6 million,

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2. Scenarios

Public health experts say the Coronavirus expansion could play out in four ways. 

Scenario 1: the outbreak could be controlled via public-health interventions and disappear. 

Scenario 2: a vaccine could be developed but it won’t come in time to contain the global spread. Scenario 3: the virus could burn itself out within six months due to the impact of the summer, in terms of sunlight, temperature and humidity. As the virus spreads, containment efforts look unlikely,

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3. Synchronous failure

The most devastating impact of the coronavirus might well be not from the virus but from the way human systems respond to it.

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3.1 Systemic fragility

In 2006, US Department of homeland security issued a guide on pandemic preparedness. A pandemic could also "cause significant economic and security ramifications" a useful framework for assessing the societal impacts of the Coronavirus would be the ‘ synchronous failure’ concept led by Thomas Homer-Dixon. 

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3.2 Global phase-shift

The 2008 financial crash was triggered by a global shift to more expensive sources of fossil fuel energy, due to the depletion of cheaper conventional resources. This shift was compensated for by massive quantitative easing (Qe), essentially, the expansion of global debt. This Debt-Expansion has fuelled GDP growth to the point that debt levels for some years have been higher than they were before the 2008 crash.

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3.3 The risk of cascading failures

The Coronavirus has hit the global system at a point when its Energy-Economic vulnerability is extremely high. The most immediate impact has been on global financial markets, which have seen massive volatility in the stock market. The OECD has warned that the rate of global economic growth could be cut by half, while several major economies such as Japan and the Eurozone, could slide into recession. The Coronavirus has almost certainly averted an oil price shock.

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4.1 The industrial origins of the coronavirus

The Coronavirus is not Vector-Borne, but Zoonotic — passed from animals to humans. There's no specific link between climate change and the Coronavirus. But there can be little doubt that climate change has increased the risk identified here. China’s particular vulnerability is related to rapid industrial growth, urban expansion, and how these factors have brought human populations into contact with animals carrying diseases. T

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4.2 Adaptation

Industrial civilization is moving into the final stages of its life cycle. This stage creates wide new spaces for societal and civilizational renewal. The Coronavirus outbreak is, ultimately, a lesson in not just the inherent systemic Fragilities in industrial civilization, but also the limits of its underlying paradigm. It is an exercise not just in building societal resilience, but in relearning the values of cooperation, compassion, generosity and kindness. 

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Light at the end of the tunnel

Human capacity to give freely regardless of material constraints. This is the capacity through love to work, give and share not for monetary gain, not for self-protection, not for any reason other than the intrinsic beauty of the act itself. As the Coronavirus crisis kicks off, it is our capacity through love to work, give and share not for monetary gain, not for self-protection, not for any reason other than the intrinsic beauty of the act itself.

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CURATED BY

michaefitzgera

Scientist in audiological

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