Ideas from books, articles & podcasts.
Comparing reality with an idealized alternative.
Overestimating the extent to which your insights are different from your peers.
Assuming other people think about you as much as you do.
The inability to communicate your ideas because you wrongly assume others have the necessary background to understand what you’re talking about.
Assuming history is a guide to the future, when in reality, “things that have never happened before happen all the time,” as Scott Sagan says.
Extreme adherence to a specific worldview in a world that changes all the time.
Underestimating the odds of disaster because it’s comforting t...
Conflating “I’m good at this” with “Others are bad at this” in a way that makes you overestimate how valuable your skills are.
Ignoring the role of luck because it’s too painful to consider, causing an overestimation of how repeatable your skills are.
Assuming competency in one field ...
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