Those in creative careers often see a burst of success. That burst or a "hot streak" is seen right after an experimental phase of focus on one approach.  Many creatives find themselves on a roll at some point in their career, like Peter Jackson (Lord of the Rings trilogy), but when it exactly happens is absolutely random.

Creative Career or not?

"About 90% people have at least one hot streak" says Prof Dashun Wang, NWU.  To facilitate a breakthrough, create an environment that will help achieve your full potential. Your work would be more diverse before you see a true hot streak.

One Hot Streak

Once you see success, stick to a narrower than expected approach. It helps one become substantially more focused on what they work on, reflecting an exploitation strategy during hot streak.  Experimentation and implementation of learning is the formula for a hot streak.

Switch Your Approach, Focus

Scientists are more likely to try new things with small teams before a hot streak and large teams when it begins. Your future work is to analyze how long your experimentation period should be.

Experimentation of process

Researchers use AI to reveal runs of artistic success are commonly preceded by an experimental phase<figure><picture itemprop="contentUrl"><source srcset="https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=124236ed9d3b30497436a58dfd62c428 1240w, https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=f07d583cd3830e566ecc239758a6fa82 1210w, https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=c4b9b6386c777487183e1dd22710fdc0 890w" sizes="(min-width: 660px) 620px, 100vw" media="(-webkit-min-device-pixel-ratio: 1.25), (min-resolution: 120dpi)"><source srcset="https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=620&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=7eaa3be4b5e2b958bfc3d956750c356c 620w, https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=605&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=4830ad641c719fc12d7e0b32a4c0ffbf 605w, https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=85&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;s=c590f1c8998e3bf3d371f10d4e33c399 445w" sizes="(min-width: 660px) 620px, 100vw"><img alt="Peter Jackson (left) directs a scene in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" src="https://i.guim.co.uk/img/media/efd3f8e296c26526f6d7d6263acead6a31b0f378/0_363_2200_1320/master/2200.jpg?width=445&amp;quality=45&amp;auto=format&amp;fit=max&amp;dpr=2&amp;s=c4b9b6386c777487183e1dd22710fdc0" height="407" width="678"></picture><figcaption dir="auto">Peter Jackson (left) directs a scene in The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King. His success with the trilogy followed a period of experimentation. Photograph: Reuters</figcaption></figure><div><label for="dateToggle">Mon 13 Sep 2021 05.00 EDT</label></div>Last modified on Mon 13 Sep 2021 13.51 EDTWhether it is the director Márta Mészáros or the artist <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jackson-pollock" data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr">Jackson Pollock</a>, those in creative careers often experience a particular burst of success.Now researchers have used artificial intelligence to reveal such “hot streaks” are commonly preceded by an experimental phase followed by a focus on one particular approach once the winning period has begun.The director Peter Jackson’s career is, perhaps, a prime example: his hugely successful Lord of the Rings trilogy came after an eclectic range of movies such as the sci-fi comedy horror Bad Taste, the puppet film Meet the Feebles and the <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2011/sep/26/drive-heavenly-creatures-reissue" data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr">drama Heavenly Creatures</a>.The new work builds on a <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0315-8" data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr">previous study</a> by the researchers that suggested many creatives find themselves on a roll at some point in their career, although when exactly this happens appears to be random.“About 90% of people have at least one hot streak” said Prof Dashun Wang of Northwestern University, who led the latest study. But, Wang said, it was important to understand why they happened.“Then we can think about, how do we facilitate an individual to help them break through?” he said. “How do we first create an environment that will help the individual to achieve their full potential?”Writing <a href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25477-8" data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr">in the journal Nature Communications</a>, Wang and colleagues report how they sought to investigate whether there was a common pattern behind hot streaks. To do so they looked at metrics of success such as the auction price of art works, IMDb ratings of films and citations of research papers to identify hot streaks for 2,128 artists, including Pollock and Frida Kahlo, 4,337 directors – including Mészáros and Jackson – and 20,040 scientists, including the Nobel laureates John B Fenn and Frances Arnold.They then analysed how diverse the individuals’ work was at different points in their careers. This was assessed using an artificial intelligence system that was trained, in the case of art, to “recognise” different styles by features such as the brush strokes, shapes and objects in a piece, while in the case of film, it was trained to classify a director’s work based on plot and cast information. For science, the system identified different research topics based on the papers cited within a researcher’s publications.The diversity before and during the hot streaks was then compared with the diversity at random points in the careers. The team found that for all three career types, work tended to be more diverse just before a true hot streak than expected from the randomly selected points.However, once success had begun, individuals switched, sticking to a narrower than expected approach. That, the team says, suggests “that individuals become substantially more focused on what they work on, reflecting an exploitation strategy during hot streak”.But the researchers found that neither exploring new approaches nor exploiting one were alone linked to hot streaks. Instead it is the combination that is important.“There’s experimentation, and then there’s implementation based on what you have learned through experimentation,” said Wang.Among other twists, the team found that scientists are more likely to try new things with small teams before a hot streak, but then work with large teams once a hot streak begins.Wang said a key direction for future work is to look at how long an experimentation period tends to be. Pamela Burnard, a professor of arts at the University of Cambridge, who was not involved in the study, welcomed the research.“‘Trying something new’, ‘going for it’ and optimising ‘hot streaks’, are not new in our understanding of creative careers. What is new is the use of AI to study careers,” she said, adding that old models, for education, economies and creative careers were failing.… we have a small favour to ask. Tens of millions have placed their trust in the Guardian’s high-impact journalism since we started publishing 200 years ago, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope. More than 1.5 million readers, from 180 countries, have recently taken the step to support us financially – keeping us open to all, and fiercely independent.With no shareholders or billionaire owner, we can set our own agenda and provide trustworthy journalism that’s free from commercial and political influence, offering a counterweight to the spread of misinformation. When it’s never mattered more, we can investigate and challenge without fear or favour. Unlike many others, Guardian journalism is available for everyone to read, regardless of what they can afford to pay. We do this because we believe in information equality. Greater numbers of people can keep track of global events, understand their impact on people and communities, and become inspired to take meaningful action. We aim to offer readers a comprehensive, international perspective on critical events shaping our world – from the Black Lives Matter movement, to the new American administration, Brexit, and the world's slow emergence from a global pandemic. We are committed to upholding our reputation for urgent, powerful reporting on the climate emergency, and made the decision to reject advertising from fossil fuel companies, divest from the oil and gas industries, and set a course to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.If there were ever a time to join us, it is now. Every contribution, however big or small, powers our journalism and sustains our future. Support the Guardian from as little as $1 – it only takes a minute. Thank you.

Researchers use AI to reveal runs of artistic success are commonly preceded by an experimental phase

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Researchers use AI to reveal runs of artistic success are commonly preceded by an experimental phase

Last modified on Mon 13 Sep 2021 13.51 EDT

Whether it is the director Márta Mészáros or the artist <a data-component="auto-linked-tag" data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr" href="https://www.theguardian.com/artanddesign/jackson-pollock">Jackson Pollock </a>, those in creative careers often experience a particular burst of success.

Now researchers have used artificial intelligence to reveal such “hot streaks” are commonly preceded by an experimental phase followed by a focus on one particular approach once the winning period has begun.

The director Peter Jackson’s career is, perhaps, a prime example: his hugely successful Lord of the Rings trilogy came after an eclectic range of movies such as the sci-fi comedy horror Bad Taste, the puppet film Meet the Feebles and the <a data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr" href="https://www.theguardian.com/film/filmblog/2011/sep/26/drive-heavenly-creatures-reissue">drama Heavenly Creatures </a>.

The new work builds on a <a data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-018-0315-8">previous study </a>by the researchers that suggested many creatives find themselves on a roll at some point in their career, although when exactly this happens appears to be random.

“About 90% of people have at least one hot streak” said Prof Dashun Wang of Northwestern University, who led the latest study. But, Wang said, it was important to understand why they happened.

“Then we can think about, how do we facilitate an individual to help them break through?” he said. “How do we first create an environment that will help the individual to achieve their full potential?”

Writing <a data-link-name="in body link" dir="ltr" href="https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-021-25477-8">in the journal Nature Communications </a>, Wang and colleagues report how they sought to investigate whether there was a common pattern behind hot streaks. To do so they looked at metrics of success such as the auction price of art works, IMDb ratings of films and citations of research papers to identify hot streaks for 2,128 artists, including Pollock and Frida Kahlo, 4,337 directors – including Mészáros and Jackson – and 20,040 scientists, including the Nobel laureates John B Fenn and Frances Arnold.

They then analysed how diverse the individuals’ work was at different points in their careers. This was assessed using an artificial intelligence system that was trained, in the case of art, to “recognise” different styles by features such as the brush strokes, shapes and objects in a piece, while in the case of film, it was trained to classify a director’s work based on plot and cast information. For science, the system identified different research topics based on the papers cited within a researcher’s publications.

The diversity before and during the hot streaks was then compared with the diversity at random points in the careers. The team found that for all three career types, work tended to be more diverse just before a true hot streak than expected from the randomly selected points.

However, once success had begun, individuals switched, sticking to a narrower than expected approach. That, the team says, suggests “that individuals become substantially more focused on what they work on, reflecting an exploitation strategy during hot streak”.

But the researchers found that neither exploring new approaches nor exploiting one were alone linked to hot streaks. Instead it is the combination that is important.

“There’s experimentation, and then there’s implementation based on what you have learned through experimentation,” said Wang.

Among other twists, the team found that scientists are more likely to try new things with small teams before a hot streak, but then work with large teams once a hot streak begins.

Wang said a key direction for future work is to look at how long an experimentation period tends to be.

Pamela Burnard, a professor of arts at the University of Cambridge, who was not involved in the study, welcomed the research.

“‘Trying something new’, ‘going for it’ and optimising ‘hot streaks’, are not new in our understanding of creative careers. What is new is the use of AI to study careers,” she said, adding that old models, for education, economies and creative careers were failing.

… we have a small favour to ask. Tens of millions have placed their trust in the Guardian’s high-impact journalism since we started publishing 200 years ago, turning to us in moments of crisis, uncertainty, solidarity and hope. More than 1.5 million readers, from 180 countries, have recently taken the step to support us financially – keeping us open to all, and fiercely independent.

With no shareholders or billionaire owner, we can set our own agenda and provide trustworthy journalism that’s free from commercial and political influence, offering a counterweight to the spread of misinformation. When it’s never mattered more, we can investigate and challenge without fear or favour.

Unlike many others, Guardian journalism is available for everyone to read, regardless of what they can afford to pay. We do this because we believe in information equality. Greater numbers of people can keep track of global events, understand their impact on people and communities, and become inspired to take meaningful action.

We aim to offer readers a comprehensive, international perspective on critical events shaping our world – from the Black Lives Matter movement, to the new American administration, Brexit, and the world's slow emergence from a global pandemic. We are committed to upholding our reputation for urgent, powerful reporting on the climate emergency, and made the decision to reject advertising from fossil fuel companies, divest from the oil and gas industries, and set a course to achieve net zero emissions by 2030.

If there were ever a time to join us, it is now. Every contribution, however big or small, powers our journalism and sustains our future. Support the Guardian from as little as $1 – it only takes a minute. Thank you.

Scientists identify key conditions to set up a creative ‘hot streak’

Creative Career or not?

One Hot Streak

Switch Your Approach, Focus

Experimentation of process

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