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What’s more important than how much data you have is how it frames the way you think.
Some leader when they're under pressure to appear decisive, approach complex situa...
He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcom...
Data can be imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain. Most of the time, there is more than one explanation for why things happened the way they did; by examining those alternative explanations using pro...
So thinking probabilistically takes some getting used to. We generally believe that something is true or false.
Our instinct for determinism may well have been an evolutionary innovation. ...
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Uncertainty is always there. The degree of uncertainty can rise and fall.
Leaders, being human, also have difficulty coping with uncertainty. When they receive confusing information, they te...
During periods of heightened uncertainty, leaders reflexively reduce investment, stop hiring, slash marketing, refrain from entering new markets, or stop making decisions.
Although understandable, acting in a pro-cyclical manner can be counterproductive. It can leave companies poorly positioned to benefit from the next stage of the cycle.
Organizations should be inclined toward action. As a baseline, companies must strive to be fit for growth. This can be done by aligning costs with priorities and strategy, investing in varied capabilities, and using traditional and digital levers to execute.
They must regularly engage in scenario planning with an array of options. They must build the capacity to be agile. They must learn to become more resilient to withstand strong external forces and quickly recover from setbacks.
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We, humans, seek stories.
We are essentially ‘story finders’ looking for meaning, narrative and shape in everything around us. We tend to not believe in improbable...
Stories built around individuals provide relatability and a sense of being in the shoes of the people involved, living in the narrative.
Our tendency to give a ‘face’ and a story to a group or collection of people made us invent a dominant leader of the group, like the President, or the Team Captain, or the Monarch.
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There is ongoing turbulence in the workplace due to the uncertainties provided by the new virus, resulting in a whole lot of people working from home. Normally the work-from-home policies are esta...
Even high-performing employees can face a decline in job performance and engagement when working remotely. This can be due to:
A few specific, research-backed steps that can be taken to improve the engagement and productivity of remote employees: