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Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information

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https://effectiviology.com/jumping-to-conclusions/

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Jumping to Conclusions: When People Decide Based on Insufficient Information
Jumping to conclusions is a phenomenon where people reach a conclusion prematurely, on the basis of insufficient information. For example, a person jumping to conclusions might assume that someone they just met is angry at them, simply because that person wasn't smiling at them while they talked, even though there are many alternative explanations for that behavior.

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Jumping into Conclusions

Jumping to conclusions is a common phenomenon, where people prematurely decide and finalize something, without having sufficient information or choosing not to consider it.

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Jumping into Conclusions: Examples

Jumping into Conclusions: Examples
  • Inference-observation confusion: An assumption made that may or may not be correct. Example: Concluding that a guy is rich, based on the car he drives.
  • Fortune-Telli...

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Why We Jump to Conclusions

The reason people jump to conclusions is the fact that they find it easy.

Fact-checking and 100 percent accuracy on everything they see or observe consume way too much time for a normal perso...

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Our Cognitive Bias

People can be biased in many ways and jump into intuitive judgments that may not necessarily be correct. When we need to make a decision quickly, sometimes jumping into a conclusion with insuffici...

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The Common Factors

Certain factors increase the chances of people jumping into conclusions:

  • A certain pre-existing belief, which leads to confirmation bias.
  • A desire for closure or certainty in th...

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Mental Disorders

People with mental disorders sometimes are more likely to engage in a premature conclusion. Their inner delusions and paranoid thoughts lead to this behaviour.
...

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A Logical Fallacy

While jumping to conclusions is viewed as a cognitive phenomenon, and is unintentional, it can also be a logical fallacy.

This means that the jumping-to-conclusions bias causes people to j...

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How to Avoid Jumping to Conclusions

  • Question the validity of the information.
  • Collect maximum information before reaching any hypothesis.
  • Come up with multiple hypotheses.
  • Don't favor a ...

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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:

The argument from incredulity

Is a logical fallacy where someone concludes that since they can’t believe that a certain concept is true, then it must be false and vice versa.

Its 2 basic forms:

I c...

Basic structure of an argument from incredulity

Premise 1: I can’t explain or imagine how proposition X can be true.

Premise 2: if a certain proposition is true, then I must be able to explain or imagine how that can be.

Conclusions: proposition X is false.

It’s ok to be incredulous

... and to bring this up as part of an argument. The issue with doing so occurs when this incredulity isn’t justified or supported by concrete information, and when this lack of belief is used in order to assume that a preferred personal explanation must be the right one, despite the lack of proof.

At the same time, it’s also important to remember that it’s possible that the person using the argument from incredulity is right, despite the fact that their reasoning is flawed.

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Cherry picking

It is a logical fallacy and it happens when we choose and focus only on evidence that supports our views and arguments while ignoring anything that may contradict us.

The problem with cherry picking

  • It fails to take into consideration all the available information
  • It presents information in a misleading way.
  • It might lead to improper analysis and might cause someone to paint a misleading picture of a certain outcome.

The principle of total evidence

Also referred to as Bernoulli’s maxim, it states that, when assessing the probability that a certain hypothesis is true, we must take into account all the available information.

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Take bold stands

Research shows humans prefer cockiness to expertise. We naturally assume confidence equates with skill.

So stop saying, "I think" or "I believe." Stop adding qualifiers to your spee...

Adjust your rate of speech

  • If your audience is likely to disagree, speak faster. It gives them less time to form their own counterarguments and you have a better chance of persuading them.
  • If your audience is likely to agree, speak slower. It gives them time to evaluate your arguments and factor in a few of their own thoughts.

Start with small "wins"

Gaining agreement has an enduring effect, even if only over the short term. So instead of jumping right to the end of your argument, start with statements or premises you know your audience will agree with. Build a foundation for further agreement.

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