Complex Systems Don’t Work With Simple Cause/Effect - Deepstash

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Complex Systems Don’t Work With Simple Cause/Effect

And when in doubt, it’s better not to mess with these systems. Starting a war to implement democracies is an example of messing with a complex system.

Clueless politicians compare a local dictator not with the local alternatives but with a Norwegian prime minister.

These people keep s...

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MORE IDEAS FROM THE SAME BOOK

Employees display submission by going through years of personal deprivation.
Givin' up 9 hours of one’s time for years, every day is the equivalent of domestication.
And showing up on time every day is the sign of an obedient, housebroken dog.

The question is whether you want to be a ...

it’s not the poor who are actually envious of the rich and it’s not the poor who first embrace communist movements.

It’s usually the bourgeois and the intellectuals and the clerical class who first embrace communism. It’s because of jealousy.

You often hear people saying that you are more likely to die by X silly thing -ie.: coconut falling- than by terrorist attacks or Ebola outbreaks but that makes no sense.

People dying because of falling coconuts or people who die by drowning in their bathtub will never double from one year ...

In societies, minorities can come to dictate the rules to the majority.

This usually happens because of asymmetry or because when the majority is either too flexible, too accommodating, or too indifferent.

A case of asymmetry is between smokers and non-smokers.
A smoker can sit in ...

Betting harder with money you won and being more conservative with your own money makes sense because that’s how you survive.

Thaler and other behavioral economists don’t get it because they see the world as a one-shot game instead of a series of repeated trades.

It’s perfectly rational to overestimate some tail risks because you can’t consider them in isolation. 

Driving after 2 glasses of wine once will not be extremely dangerous, but doing so every day is.

When you measure tail risks in the laboratory you only consider one tail risks at a t...

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The curse of modernity is that we are increasingly populated by a class of people who are better at explaining than understanding,

or better at explaining than doing.

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Start With Small Bets

Risk should preferably be viewed as an experiment. This helps with testing innovation and reducing risk if things don't turn out as intended.

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DORIE CLARK

Playing the long game—eschewing short-term gratification in order to work toward an uncertain but worthy future goal—isn’t easy. But it’s the surest path to meaningful and lasting success in a world that so often prioritizes what’s easy, quick, and ultimately shallow.

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