Learn more about problemsolving with this collection
Understanding the importance of decision-making
Identifying biases that affect decision-making
Analyzing the potential outcomes of a decision
“Plans are useless, but planning is indispensable.”
DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER
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Consider your assumptions
Just because we know and understand the concept of conjunctive events bias, we are not automatically immune to it.
When we are planning, it is useful to run through our assumptions with this bias in mind. We should be more pessimistic about our plans and consider the worst-case s...
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435 reads
The conjunctive events bias
We often overestimate the likelihood of events that must happen in conjunction with one another.
We are optimistic in our estimation of the cost and schedule and surprised when something inevitably goes wrong.
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745 reads
The best plans often fail
A plan is like a system. A change in one component of a system will likely impact the functionality of other parts of the system.
The more steps involved in a plan, the higher the chance that something will go wrong and cause delays and setbacks. For this reason, home remodeling and ne...
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425 reads
Conjunctive events
- Broader categories are always more probable than their subsets. It's more likely someone has a pet than they have a cat. It's more likely someone likes coffee than they like cappuccinos. The extension rule in probability theory thus states that if B is a subset of A, B cannot ...
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382 reads
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Writing = business planning
Writing is NOT the antithesis of agile.
Agility comes from planning. Without plans, activities are just brownian motion. And you can’t have plans, especially shared plans, without writing.
Conscientiousness
Conscientious people are committed to plans and ensure they carry them out accurately. They consider the wisdom of their decisions for the long-term.
They are essential for strategic planning but can be too rigid.
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