The “hot hand” fallacy is a cognitive bias that assumes a person who experiences a successful outcome has a greater chance of success if they continue.  When you invest during a bull market, you may feel like a winner on every investment or trade. But hot streaks never last. It is unsustainable if you want to build long-term wealth.

The “Hot hand” fallacy: When you can’t lose

Extrapolation is estimating the values of a variable based on known data. Scientists can look at the existing birthrate and use that data to extrapolate the future population. However, it's not a reliable method when dealing with finance and the economy.For example:<ul><li>If today is bad, you assume the future will worsen. </li><li>If today is good, you assume the future will be even better.</li></ul>Nothing lasts forever, not the bad or the good times.

The “Over-extrapolation” fallacy: The future is not the same

Didier Sornette, a former professor of Entrepreneurial Risks at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology, published a book,  Why Stock Markets Crash, and found that half to two-thirds of all bubbles crashed. Stock market events repeat themselves. When fiscal policy is easy, and credit comes cheap, asset prices rise. The trend inevitably reverses at some point.

Stock market bubbles

When investors deal with an exceptional event, they often say, ”This time, it’s different.”  It is more likely to happen during the formation of bubbles. For example, in 2021, investors and commentators said we were in a bubble for growth stocks and SPACs. While some said it was similar to the Dotcom crash of 2000, other investors said we're certainly not in a bubble. We were, and it started to crash from mid-2021.

Expectations during the formation of bubbles

Long-term investing is about ensuring you can keep investing. It's not about the right stocks, taking risks, buying low or selling high. Smart investors stay in the game regardless of the conditions. They recognize patterns in the market and their own thinking, which is an important characteristic of sound investing.

The aware investor avoids losing all their money

"This time it’s different.” That's one of the investing fallacies that makes investors lose money. Here are two others to avoid.

moneyandinvestments

Money & Investments

”This Time it’s Different” and 2 Other Investing Fallacies

Scientists want to use an experiment to confirm that <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a36701159/charm-mesons-particle/">elementary particles</a> have measurable mass. It would involve a matter-<a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a34272429/how-much-matter-is-in-the-universe/">antimatter</a> annihilation process that would shoot a beam of positrons at electrons in a piece of metal. Positrons and electrons are both subatomic particles, with the same mass and magnitude of charge. However, <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/space/deep-space/a37224743/physicists-generate-antimatter-in-the-lab/">positrons</a> are positively charged, and electrons are negatively charged. A sheet of metal has many free electrons, increasing the probability of collision with the incoming positrons.

Information Being A Form Of Matter: The backstory

Scientists believe that the observable matter in the universe has specific information content. For example, typical atoms—containing protons, electrons, and neutrons—hold not only the combined masses of these subatomic particles, but also the minuscule masses of the information they require to interact with each other and the rest of the universe. This type of information could be considered the <a href="https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a33327626/scientists-encoded-wizard-of-oz-in-dna/#:~:text=%22A%20teaspoon%20of%20DNA%20contains,internet%20in%20a%20shoe%20box.%22">“DNA”</a> of the particles.

A New Concept of Matter

Proving that information has mass can explain mysteries like dark matter. That’s because the physical properties of the bits of information mimic what dark matter appears to be—small bits of mass particles without charge or spin.Confirming that information is the fifth state of matter touches on a weird idea: that the universe is actually a computer simulation. As an academic exercise, scientists have <a href="https://watchdocumentaries.com/the-simulation-hypothesis/">suggested this idea before</a>. If information is indeed a key component of everything in the universe, then perhaps a computer somewhere is running our whole world as a simulation.

Beyond Our Earthly Problems: The Universe May Be A Simulation After All

The amount of information we have today is staggering. Each day on Earth, we generate 500 million tweets, 294 billion emails, 4 million gigabytes of Facebook data, 65 billion WhatsApp messages, and 720,000 hours of new content added daily on YouTube.The total amount of data created, captured, copied, and consumed in the world was 59 zettabytes in 2020.One zettabyte is 8,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 bits.Proving that information has mass through physical experiments is the first step toward finding a possible solution to the problem of explosive information growth.

Information Generated Every Day

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Information could become the fifth state of matter alongside gas, plasma, liquid, and solid states.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">A scientist has proposed an experiment involving particle annihilation that could establish that information truly has mass.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">If successful, the experiment could shed light on the mysterious dark matter in our universe—and help us manage the future of data storage.</li></ul>

Key Findings

If true, this idea could even help us understand all of the dark matter in our universe.

technologyandthefuture

Technology & The Future

scienceandnature

Science & Nature

space

Space

Information Could Be the 5th State of Matter, Proving We Live in a Simulation

Zero Trust models include Google's <a href="https://cloud.google.com/beyondcorp?ref=hackernoon.com">BeyondCorp</a>, Gartner's <a href="https://www.gartner.com/en/webinars/3891406/the-7-imperatives-of-continuous-adaptive-risk-and-trust-assessme?ref=hackernoon.com">CARTA</a>, NIST <a href="https://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/SpecialPublications/NIST.SP.800-207.pdf?ref=hackernoon.com">SP800–207</a>, and <a href="https://www.forrester.com/blogs/tag/ztx/?ref=hackernoon.com">ZTX </a>by Forrester. They assume that being compromised is inevitable. The key difference between Cybersecurity and Cyber-Resilience is the focus of response.<ul><li>In cybersecurity, we have DR/ BCP to ensure organizations can continue operations quickly. Yet, cybersecurity still focus on preventive controls.</li><li>Achieving cyber-resilience is not the endgame. It is an endless journey. Organizations must prepare for the worst and identify vulnerabilities before adversaries.</li></ul>

Cybersecurity vs. Cyber-Resilience

<ul><li>According to a recent survey conducted by iSMG, 100% of the respondents said that Zero Trust is critical to reducing their cybersecurity risk.</li><li>46% said Zero Trust is the most crucial security practice.</li><li>Another survey by Forrester showed that 78% of security executives plan to raise their use of Zero Trust in 2022.</li></ul> However, there's an execution problem with Zero Trust.<ul><li>Forrester's survey reports full deployment of Zero Trust at only 6%.</li><li>30% said Zero Trust is in partial deployment or production,</li><li>and 63% are in assessment, strategy or pilot phases.</li></ul> As a result, many are just planning, not executing.

Approach Cybersecurity with Zero Trust Strategies

It's normal to start risk assessment with attack surface analysis. For example, security professionals look at where the perimeter is, how someone might break in and what method they might use. With Zero Trust, it is different. The highest value and highest risk users and assets are recommended starting from the data and applications. Consequently, the protective surface is smaller than the attack perimeter and easier to defend. Prioritise what to protect based on what's critical, then move to the next set of protection surfaces on the priority list.

Understand the protection surface

Data centres traditionally manage networks and surrounding environments by creating a "micro-boundary" in the data centre with a differential segment, meaning only pre-approved traffic flows can pass. When building a Zero Trust Architecture, the principle is the same, but the network segment and boundary will be much smaller. Consequently, the micro-segmentation policy should be de-coupled from the existing network architecture and have the capability to scale at ease. The allowed list is based on policy, not IP addresses.

 Building The New Boundary - Micro-segmentation

Remote workers accessing your network increase the attack surfaces on a new scale. The security team should find ways to reduce the attack surface to minimize exposure. Internally, a micro-segmentation approach gives a secure 1:1 connection to authorized resources. We can also apply Zero Trust security outside the organization against external threats by:<ul><li>proactively mapping your digital footprint,</li><li>monitoring communication channels for attack indicators,</li><li>rapidly mitigating identified threats (including patching).</li></ul>

Reducing Attack Surface

Identity is the foundation of Zero Trust security. It means knowing where all identities originate: user identities, service accounts, application sessions, ephemeral identities, and cloud assets. Identity-based Zero Trust continually monitors every access request made by all users to any resource in the system. It ensures a thorough audit trail for compliance.

Aligning Identities

You can't protect what you can't see. First complete visibility to understand how everything connects and behaves, which is the cause of security gaps or broken workflows. Once they get complete visibility, they can understand what trust and enforcement policies they need. Then they implement Zero Trust around four enforcement points (identities, devices, networks, applications, and data).

Maximizing Visibility

With cybersecurity, the question is no longer only how to keep bad players out. Instead, the priority is how to recover as quickly as possible once an attack occurs.

With increased attack surfaces caused by businesses migrating to the cloud and remote workers, Zero Trust has become cybersecurity's most valuable thing.

cybersecurity

Cybersecurity

How Do I Adopt a 'Zero Trust' Framework?

Some off-the-shelf solutions, such as Face++, set their prices based on the classifiers used, with more complex classifiers being more expensive.Custom facial recognition solutions: The system may include classifiers, such as face detection, face verification, face grouping, similar face search, etc. The more models you accumulate, the more it will cost. But the number of classifiers is only one of several attributes impacting complexity. Other parameters include the solution’s scalability, number of images being processed, security requirements, availability, and fault tolerance.

The Complexity of Your Facial Recognition Solution

If the chosen format is not powerful enough, it will cause delays and quality degradation. To identify a person posing in front of a camera, we need two neural network models – a face detector and a face recognizer. We can process around six frames per second. With these requirements, one could make do with a low-cost graphics processing unit (GPU), and even a central processing unit (CPU) might suffice. However, if we complicate this task by tracking people’s trajectories and actions or even increasing the number of cameras, we will have to procure a more powerful and expensive GPU.

Hardware Configuration

After detecting a face, facial recognition software reads the facial geometry, which encompasses around 80 different elements. The key features include the distance between the eyes, eye socket depth, cheekbone shape, and jawline length.When the analysis is complete, the tool will generate a facial signature as a mathematical formula and will compare it against other faces in the repository.Facial recognition systems have many exciting applications in different industries.

How Facial Recognition Systems Work

The camera type and its location depends on the desired coverage, image quality, and angle of view. Examine the location where you want to install cameras. In the case of poor lighting conditions, opt for devices with built-in features that can compensate for the lack of light and still produce images that your facial recognition software can work with.Also, some facial recognition algorithms require 3D cameras. You might consider purchasing cameras that come with pre-installed computer vision software installed and can accomplish tasks like pre-processing and face detection.

The Camera

If a company operates from a remote location where different communicating objects are positioned far apart, you will need to establish a reliable communication channel. Such high-quality cables can be even more expensive than servers and cameras and will account for a large portion of the total costs of a facial recognition system.

Connectivity Requirements

<ul><li>Opt for a ready-made solution if you have standard requirements and want something to be up and running in a matter of days without spending a lot on infrastructure.</li><li>Invest in your system's security.</li><li>If you have unique and complex requirements, then it is best to invest in a custom facial recognition solution.</li><li>Don't procure hardware with barely enough power and storage capacity to cover your current needs.</li><li>Leave a margin for estimation errors and possible business expansion.</li><li>Make sure the data you use represents your target population faithfully.</li></ul>

Tips to Help You Make Cost-Effective Decisions

Companies need to carefully consider their hardware choices to avoid getting their hopes high with a software solution that their devices can’t handle. But at the same time, firms shouldn’t overpay for computational resources that they will not use.To have a working facial recognition system, you will need to procure cameras, switches, kilometres of cables, and servers for data storage and processing (unless you’re planning to use the cloud). All these utilities will add up to your facial recognition system’s price.

The Hardware

Facial recognition systems are considered the most reliable among biometric identification forms, such as fingerprints and iris recognition.But the technology has its challenges. The facial recognition process often occurs in an uncontrolled environment with variable lighting conditions and dynamic backgrounds. Other factors affecting recognition quality include facial expressions, a person’s age, and ethnicity.

The Workings of A Facial Recognition System

The global facial recognition market size was evaluated at $3.8 billion in 2020 and is expected to reach $8.5 billion in 2025, growing at a CAGR of 17.2%.However, the costs of facial recognition software are challenging to estimate. There are hidden expenses that companies tend to overlook and, as a result, surpass the allocated budget.

Deploying Facial Recognition Systems

System complexity directly influences the costs of facial recognition software. You can deploy a tool with limited functionality for a few thousand dollars, while a highly complex and secure solution will cost you up to $1,000,000 and even more.The location of operations also influences the total price. If you need to survey large warehouses with hundreds of cameras, hardware costs will form a large part of your expenditures. But even with complex solutions, you can plan ahead to ensure the allocated budget is wisely spent.

How to Minimize Facial Recognition System Costs in the Long Run

<ul>
<li>Hardware: includes servers and devices responsible for capturing images.</li>
<li>Connectivity technology: allows hardware devices to transmit images for further analysis either to the cloud or to other devices on-premises.</li>
<li>Facial recognition software: a biometric tool that extracts faces from images and matches them to the existing database of faces for identification.</li>
<li>Database of faces: a collection of identities, such as an employee database or a hub for social media images.</li>
<li>Client-side web/mobile app: an interface that enables users to view the results.</li>
</ul>

The Five Main Components Of A Facial Recognition System

Facial recognition solution vendors allow client companies to use their APIs, but you still need to integrate them into your system.You can turn to custom software vendors to facilitate integration and build a client-side application, which allows you to reap the full benefits of the facial recognition software. For example, integrating a tool that only does face detection and identification will cost you at least $3,000, and this number will increase with the scope of the facial recognition solution.

Facial Recognition Software

With the help of a facial recognition system, federal agents could capture a person suspected of illegal activity. 

computerscience

Computer Science

artificialintelligence

Artificial Intelligence

Things You Need to Know Before Installing a Facial Recognition System

Consider medium-risk investment portfolios: 50 percent to 60 percent as large-cap stocks, and the rest in less risky assets like bonds, gold, and other stable commodities. If you're not sure where to begin, check out investment platforms like <a href="https://public.com/">Public.com</a>, which helps people become better investors, no matter their level of investing experience.

Step 1: Invest in The Right Portfolio

Although this may be decades away, think of your plans for your future self. Do you want to stop working in your 40s or your 70s? Do you want to spend your days with your children, or volunteering at animal shelters, or sailing around the Mayan riviera? Or some combo of all three? Retirement is not only about the freedom to pursue hobbies, but also about being able to live life on your terms. It may be hard to imagine this in your 20s because you may have just left the nest or truly be enthralled with your new career.

Step 1: Envision Your Retirement Lifestyle

Your 40s is when keeping up with the Joneses really kicks in. Family vacations ramp up, kids' expenses double and triple, and you start to feel like you've worked hard for the good things in life. The truth is that inflation is making the cost of basic needs very expensive, so you'll need to be careful about excess spending today that could rob you of your carefree future.

Step 2: Track Your Spending 

According to <a href="https://newsroom.fidelity.com/press-releases/news-details/2021/Fidelity-Survey-Finds-62-of-Americans-Optimistic-About-2022-Despite-Concerns-About-Inflation-and-Rising-Costs/default.aspx">Fidelity Investments' annual resolutions study</a>, among the next generation (ages 18-35), 62 percent plan to increase their retirement contribution in the year ahead, at a far higher level than older Americans (34 percent). Save at least 15% of your pre-tax income each year for retirement, which includes any contributions you may get from your employer if you have a 401(k) or other workplace retirement account. Starting early, even with smaller amounts, is key to achieving financial freedom. Compound interest works in your favour.

Step 3: Invest as much as you can

If you land a salaried role, chances are that you'll have the opportunity to invest in a retirement account called a 401(k). This plan allows employees to contribute a portion of their income on a pre-tax basis. The income is not taxed at the time it is earned, but rather when it is withdrawn from the account during retirement. To be eligible to contribute to a 401(K), an individual must have an employment history with his or her company and be over 18 years old. As of 2021, you can contribute up to $19,500 per year.

Step 4: If Your Job Offers a Retirement Plan, Go For It

If you had children in your 20s or 30s, chances are you're preparing for their college expenses side-by-side with your retirement savings. For them, start a 529 plan for college and trade school expenses. Also consider <a href="https://www.parents.com/parenting/money/family-finances/ways-to-save-for-college-without-a-529-plan/">unconventional ways to grow your wealth</a>, while also saving for their future.

Step 3: Get Ready For College Expenses

Everyone can retire with dignity. All we have to do is consistently invest 10 percent of whatever we make and forget that it exists until we actually retire. Technology has advanced enough to enable investing consistently in micro amounts.Get an account that allows you to auto-invest 10 percent of what you earn consistently until retirement.

Step 1: Automate With Digital Tools 

One of the most important things you can do for your future is to accumulate cash. That's what a savings account is for. You may also have student loan debts or a store card that has a balance that needs to be paid off. Work on your emergency savings (three to six months of living expenses) at the same time that you pay off these debts. If your student loans are insurmountable, use income-based repayment plans to create a sustainability plan.

Step 2: Pay Off Your Debt And Start Saving

Thirty is not the new 20 when it comes to retirement savings. At this age, you may already feel the burden of taking care of aging parents or young dependents. Student loans may linger, but your income is probably reaching new heights. If you haven't yet had time to focus on retirement, don't feel bad. You're not alone.

3 Steps to Start Retirement Planning in Your 30s

As you age, health risks and the cost of health insurance increase. No matter how much you have saved, it can easily be wiped out by a medical expense that isn't properly covered. Now is a great time to consider your health insurance, long-term care insurance, and any other medical care benefits that you might have put off.

Step 3: Make Sure You're Properly Insured 

If you don't know where your bank passwords are, get a book or online password keeper to make sure you're never locked out. If you have only paper copies of important documents, digitize them in a tool like <a href="http://mymacromemoir.com/">My Macro Memoir</a>, which other family members can access if they need to. In short, get all your financial details out of your head and into an organizer—virtual or hard copy.

Step 2: Get Your Finances Organized

There are many reasons why retirement savings might not have been an option until your 40s. For example, many people come to the U.S. for study in their 20s or skilled work in their 30s, and realize in their 40s that they have some financial catching up to do. Similarly, freelancers, artists, entrepreneurs, and folks in the middle of a second or third career might find themselves more focused on retirement savings now than ever before.

3 Steps to Start Retirement Planning in Your 40s

There are lots of resources out there for free, including <a href="https://www.realsimple.com/work-life/money/early-retirement-bipoc-influencers">influencers who teach you how to retire early</a>, and apps that help you find <a href="https://www.realsimple.com/work-life/money/saving/geographic-arbitrage">cities with a lower cost of living</a> where you can retire in style. The earlier you start, the greater your chances of achieving your retirement goals. So if you haven't started already, the next best time to start is right now.

The Bottom Line: Start Now

Sometimes life gets in the way of saving as much as you'd like. Student loans, mortgage payments, and unforeseen financial expenses can completely throw off the best-laid retirement plans. However, it is possible to start in your 30s, 40s, and even 50s and still have enough to bid your day job adieu.Here's how you can get them both in alignment no matter what age you are today.

4 Steps to Start Retirement Planning In Your 20s

Remember that pesky 401(k) savings account that you may or may not have had the chance to max out? Now, dump as much money into that account as possible, get the employer match, and pay attention to the fund options. Usually, they are funds that are so risk-averse they are barely making more than your savings account. You can afford to be riskier—consider medium to high-risk options that can skyrocket your gains over the next 10 to 20 years.

Step 1: Max Out 401(k) Savings 

When and how you plan for retirement can make a huge difference in when you can ditch your job and how enjoyable life will be when you do. Of course, the ideal route is to start saving as soon as you start working. If you land your first job in your early 20s, it can be very helpful to start stashing away cash while you're still potentially living in your parents' home and have little consumer debt.

Planning For Retirement: Start Early

Once you've contributed all you can to your employer-driven retirement accounts, consider other outside accounts, such as traditional and Roth IRAs (<a href="https://www.fidelity.com/building-savings/learn-about-iras/what-is-an-ira#:~:text=An%20individual%20retirement%20account%20(IRA,in%20a%20tax%2Dadvantaged%20way.">individual retirement accounts</a>). Work with a financial planner to figure out which one is best for you. If you're already married and there's an income gap between spouses, there are ways for one spouse to help fund the retirement account of the other. Take a look at whether a <a href="https://www.investopedia.com/terms/s/spousal-ira.asp#:~:text=A%20spousal%20IRA%20is%20a,income%20or%20very%20little%20income.&text=However%2C%20the%20working%20spouse's%20income,on%20behalf%20of%20both%20spouses.">spousal IRA</a> is an option for your family.

Step 2: Look Into IRAs

Chances are that you have money saved somewhere, just not in your retirement account. Your income may be steady, which is also a good thing. You may have untapped equity in your home, too. Your interest in full-time work may be in flux, as well as greater demands on your time—grandkids, civic organizations, taking care of elders and neighbours.

3 Steps to Start Retirement Planning in Your 50s

Over time, homes can have accumulated a lot of equity that could be better leveraged to move to an appropriately located or better-sized home that wouldn't cost as much to maintain. Think of how you can use your home to fund your future. Rent out an empty room on <a href="https://www.vrbo.com/">VRBO</a> or <a href="https://www.airbnb.com/">Airbnb</a>. Take out equity to buy a <a href="https://www.realsimple.com/work-life/money/home-finance/how-to-buy-a-vacation-home">vacation home</a>, which can generate retirement income. Learn more about <a href="https://www.realsimple.com/work-life/money/money-planning/reverse-mortgage">reverse mortgages</a> to decide if you truly need one. Creatively use your home as a tool to finance your future.

Step 3: Reevaluate the Value Of Your Home

An important read on saving and investing for retirement, no matter what your age.

It's not too late to get started. Learn the best steps to take to plan for retirement at your age here.

”This Time it’s Different” and 2 Other Investing Fallacies

Information Could Be the 5th State of Matter, Proving We Live in a Simulation

How Do I Adopt a 'Zero Trust' Framework?

It's time to
Read like a Pro.

Things You Need to Know Before Installing a Facial Recognition System

CURATED BY

”This Time it’s Different” and 2 Other Investing Fallacies

Information Could Be the 5th State of Matter, Proving We Live in a Simulation

How Do I Adopt a 'Zero Trust' Framework?

It's time to Read like a Pro.

Things You Need to Know Before Installing a Facial Recognition System

CURATED BY

It's time to
Read like a Pro.