Overconfidence is a common human trait that can be dangerous, particularly in situations where we have limited control over outcomes.We often underestimate the role of luck and randomness in our lives, leading us to make bad decisions and take unnecessary risks.

Overconfidence: The Illusion of Control

Antifragility means having systems, processes and activities that actually improve when faced with volatility, shocks and stressors. It goes beyond resilience or robustness to exploit uncertainty.We should engineer and participate in antifragile domains that dynamically learn and strengthen from disorder rather than merely withstand it.

Antifragility: Beyond Resilience

Some errors and guided trial-and-error are necessary features for antifragility. Systems that are overprotected from all shocks and stresses tend to weaken.Allow imperfection to enable dynamic gains from stressors, learning and evolution.

Imperfection Enables Antifragility

Our brains have a natural tendency to create coherent narratives to make sense of the world around us, even if those narratives are not necessarily accurate or complete. This bias can lead to oversimplification and a failure to appreciate the complexity and randomness of life.

Narrative Bias: Our Minds Prefer Coherent Stories to Truth

Seeking theoretical perfection or maximum efficiency often makes things more fragile and prone to disruption in practice.Overoptimization narrows tolerances, removes redundancies and streamlines away safety nets that provide resilience. It is better to favor empirically antifragile systems and activities that gain from uncertainty over theoretically optimal but fragile ones.

Optimization Leads to Fragility

Pursue activities and gather knowledge for their own sake rather than narrow utility. Curiosity, not optimization, is crucial for fulfillment, optionality and avoiding fragility.Learn broadly guided by interest, not just specialized investment.

Curiosity Over Optimization

Seek nuance, avoid false dichotomies. Binary, black-and-white thinking and simplistic models ignore the organic interconnectedness and complexity of the real world.Appreciate gray areas and overlaps rather than forcing false choices.

Accept the Gray Areas

True optimal solutions are often unknowable in complex domains with many variables. Don't chase fictional best-case scenarios drawn from models and assumptions.Settle for what empirically seems to work well enough in practice, avoiding overoptimizations.

"Good Enough" Beats Optimal Illusions

Randomness, uncertainty and unpredictability are unavoidable facts of life. Black swan events happen. We cannot accurately forecast or model everything, especially in nonlinear systems.Accept the limits of prediction and prepare to adapt.

Plan for Unpredictability

The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms" is a book written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. It was published in 2010 and is a collection of aphorisms, or short philosophical sayings, on topics such as randomness, uncertainty, and human nature. The title of the book refers to the Greek myth of Procrustes, a bandit who would stretch or amputate his captives to fit them to the size of his iron bed. Taleb uses this story as a metaphor for the dangers of forcing people or ideas into predetermined categories or molds.

The Bed of Procrustes is a standalone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don’t understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, The Black Swan, Antifragile, and Skin in the Game. By the author of the modern classic The Black Swan, this collection of aphorisms and meditations expresses his major ideas in ways you least expect. The Bed of Procrustes takes its title from Greek mythology: the story of a man who made his visitors fit his bed to perfection by either stretching them or cutting their limbs. It represents Taleb’s view of modern civilization’s hubristic side effects—modifying humans to satisfy technology, blaming reality for not fitting economic models, inventing diseases to sell drugs, defining intelligence as what can be tested in a classroom, and convincing people that employment is not slavery. Playful and irreverent, these aphorisms will surprise you by exposing self-delusions you have been living with but never recognized. With a rare combination of pointed wit and potent wisdom, Taleb plows through human illusions, contrasting the classical values of courage, elegance, and erudition against the modern diseases of nerdiness, philistinism, and phoniness. “Taleb’s crystalline nuggets of thought stand alone like esoteric poems.”—Financial Times

philosophy

Philosophy

personaldevelopment

Personal Development

books

Books

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an accomplished writer whose work has resonated with readers around the world. Nassim Nicholas Taleb has published several books that explore a range of topics, from fiction to nonfiction, and has received critical acclaim for the ability to weave compelling narratives. Nassim Nicholas Taleb's writing style is known for its depth and authenticity, and has earned quite a loyal following of readers.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

The Bed of Procrustes

Riding the hype train can get your project trending quickly, but you'll have nothing left when the hype is over. So find something that has longevity instead. What's something people will keep searching for in the coming decades? Email, DNS, online meetings, and timezone conversions are all examples of things that have a high and steady search volume.

Longevity

If your project can't attract any users, then it's obviously not going to generate any meaningful revenue, let alone allow you to eventually build a business around it.Too much monetization potential, on the other hand, can attract regular businesses, or venture-backed businesses. So ideally, we'd be somewhere in between.

The monetization sweet spot

You can't undertake a massive project on the side, so the scope needs to be minimal. Once an initial version is live, it should be extensible incrementally. Adding many small features that add up to a great product. Since side projects are primarily done in the evenings and weekends, the available time is usually chunked into sessions of a couple of hours.That's another reason to find something that can be built iteratively. Try to ship something every other session.

Limited but extensible scope

Use these three criteria to evaluate an idea:<ol><li>Longevity — Will it stay relevant for a long time?</li><li>The monetization sweet spot — Can you make a living?</li><li>Limited but extensible scope — Can you pull it off?</li></ol>

The Golden Trio

Three important criteria for picking a side project are longevity, the monetization sweet spot, and the scope.

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Career

business

Business

computerscience

Computer Science

How to pick a side project strategically

Virtual real estate is a highly speculative investment. Still, there are some basic principles to evaluating virtual real estate. <ul><li>Building something interactive on the land can raise a property’s value because it allows you to charge for admission or lease out space.</li><li>Heavily-trafficked areas are also going to be worth more. The more avatars that visit a property, the more you can make from foot traffic or selling ad space.</li><li>Being close to other valuable properties can make yours more valuable. </li><li>The value of virtual real estate depends entirely on how much other people value it — just like money.</li></ul>

How Much Is Virtual Real Estate Worth?

<ul><li>The future of the metaverse is still uncertain. </li><li>There’s no way to know which metaverse platforms will stand the test of time. </li><li> Digital land can be infinitely replicated. And yet scarcity of land is what gives it value. So virtual land is vulnerable to a high level of volatility.</li><li>When you buy virtual real estate, you’re also buying something that’s not tied to reality. People just don’t need virtual property the same way they need physical property. </li><li>Metaverse platforms rely heavily on blockchain technology. Most use cryptocurrencies for processing real estate transactions, which are highly vola<warningtag>tile in and of themselves. </warningtag></li></ul>

The Risks of Investing in Virtual Real Estate

Metaverse platforms intentionally limit the size of their digital worlds, so they can parcel out pieces of land to be bought and sold on virtual real estate marketplaces.Across the top 4 metaverse platforms — Sandbox, Decentraland, Cryptovoxels, and Somnium — there were over $500 million worth of virtual real estate sales just last year. Virtual real estate got a boost during the pandemic, when people started spending more time online, and then another one when Facebook changed its name to Meta.

What Is Virtual Real Estate?

Ultimately, the value of virtual real estate depends entirely on how much other people value it — just like money.

crypto

Cryptocurrency

moneyandinvestments

Money & Investments

technologyandthefuture

Technology & The Future

Is Virtual Real Estate in the Metaverse a Good Investment?

Most products have many different features, and the majority of the time, a user arrives to find a solution to one problem.By helping users accomplish their desired outcome from the start, they are more likely to see its value and adopt the product.

Context and Segment Matter

The problem with the time-based email approach is that it does not consider what the user has already done in your product. The emails have to be synced with the performed actions of the user.To avoid coming across as annoying and spammy, trigger emails based on users' actions they have or have not taken inside the product to ensure timely and relevant communication.

Time-Based Emails Without Context Backfire

The six basic types of social proof:<ul><li>Expert's stamp of approval</li><li>Celebrity endorsement</li><li>Trust icons</li><li>Data </li><li>Customer testimonials</li><li>Reviews</li></ul>You should use at least one of these in a business’ <a href="https://productled.com/blog/5-steps-to-refine-customer-onboarding/">onboarding experience</a>.

Leverage Social Proof

Most product-led businesses focus on signup conversion.But if you do the math, optimizing the user onboarding process is much more impactful to your company's growth.We analyzed 150+ onboarding experiences. Here are the best user onboarding examples.

The Best Onboarding Experience

<ul>
<li>30-50% of signups don't verify their email.</li>
<li>Prevent this by removing the activation step right at the beginning of the onboarding process.</li>
<li>Over 30% of required user onboarding steps are rubbish.</li>
<li>Every field, button click, and page is an opportunity for users to abandon your app for good.</li>
</ul>

Email Verification Walls Are Conversion Killers

Often, teams approach the content of signup screens and onboarding elements as a low priority. It’s usually focused on product features rather than communicating the benefits of these features. Every word in the entire customer onboarding process is an opportunity to speak to users’ needs and desires. This is the ultimate motivation — show users how the product can help improve their lives.Use content to amplify the solution to their current pain points, calm their anxieties, and help them to overcome their existing habits.

Describing “What” and Not “Why”: Focus on The Users’ Goal

There are form fields that you don’t really need to ask people when signing up. There are required steps that first-time users don’t need to complete right away. And, of course, some steps don’t really need to be there at all.

Form Fields: Unnecessary Steps Discourage Users from Completing the Onboarding

<ul><li>The goal is to provide users with enough information to experience the product's value without being overwhelmed by too many unnecessary steps.</li><li>People don't hate product tours, they hate being forced to the tour, invasive pop-ups and irrelevant steps.</li><li>Product tours should cover important step(s) that set users up for success.</li></ul>

Product Tours Should Be Done Right

We analyzed 150+ onboarding experiences. Here are the best user onboarding examples of product-led companies doing it right.

Discover the world of business and economics.

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Economics

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Product & Design

We analyzed 150+ onboarding experiences. Here are the best user onboarding examples.

All the work that I do is at the intersection of Psychology and Computer Science

The goal of the metaverse is not to build technology for people to interact with; but rather, to build technology for people to interact with each other

You can only build Facebook/Meta if you have the idea that people having the right to express themselves is a good thingVoice + Connection = Opportunit.The challenging thing with free speech is that there is a line, the thing that everyone disagrees on is the definition of real harm. The blame for improper censorship should also be directed at the institutions of the United States that fail to define harm accurately and honestly.Balancing the AI system that proactively regulates harmful content is challenging. It’s no longer a technical problem, simply a philosophical one.

Censorship

Think about what you’re excited about for the future. Always keep sight of things that bring you joySurround yourself with people you want to be like. Mark only hires people that he could see himself working for in an alternate universe.This advice expands to your friends and relationships.

Life Advice

I don’t think pressure from advertisers or politicians directly affect how we think about this, these are just hard topics

How do you replicate presence?Mark says Meta wants to make the most human thing possible: visual presence, spatial audio, temperature, olfactory system, touch, etc.Meetings over Zoom are a great counter-example to some of the goals at MetaMany Meta product elements are developed based on basic functions of psychology: facial expressions, eye contact, and moreThere will be different use-cases for avatars: photo-realistic vs expressive identities. There is personal and functional utility in being able to customize your avatarThe market for creative commerce around digital clothing could be huge.

Metaverse

An accurate characterization would have been that teens using Instagram are generally positive for their mental health, but of course, that was not the narrative that came out. Mark argues that other tech companies don’t even bother to perform the researchThey want to do the research to improve, not to sweep it under the rug“Objectively speaking, there’s hunger [in the press] to say negative things about social media. And, I don’t understand how that leads to an open conversation about the positives and negatives of social media.

Instagram Whistleblower

All children are artists, the challenge is how do you remain one when you grow up

What grabs someone’s attention in the near term is not going to grab it over the long term.Making a user angry isn’t going to retain that user, Facebook doesn’t have an incentive to do this. Products are not just their function and utility, it’s their feeling.Subscription products cater towards their audience, they don’t have an incentive to be in the middle–this fuels polarization. Advertising models at least make consumer services free, giving everyone an opportunity to have a voice. Greater polarization has been found in groups that are least likely to use the internet or social media.

The Social Dilemma

Mark Zuckerberg is CEO of Meta, formerly Facebook. Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors: - Paperspace: https://gradient.run/lex to get $15 credit - Coinbase: https://coinbase.com/lex to get $5 in free Bitcoin - InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex and use code Lex25 to get 25% off - ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and use code LexPod to get 3 months free - Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium EPISODE LINKS: Mark's Facebook: https://facebook.com/zuck Mark's Instagram: https://instagram.com/zuck Meta AI: https://ai.facebook.com/ PODCAST INFO: Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41 OUTLINE: 0:00 - Introduction 5:36 - Metaverse 25:36 - Identity in Metaverse 37:45 - Security 42:10 - Social Dilemma 1:04:16 - Instagram whistleblower 1:09:01 - Social media and mental health 1:14:26 - Censorship 1:31:35 - Translation 1:39:10 - Advice for young people 1:44:58 - Daughters 1:47:46 - Mortality 1:52:19 - Question for God 1:55:25 - Meaning of life SOCIAL: - Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman - LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman - Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman - Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman - Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman - Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman - Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman

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Marketing & Sales

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Videos

Mark Zuckerberg is CEO of Meta, formerly Facebook.

Please support this podcast by checking out our sponsors:
- Paperspace: https://gradient.run/lex to get $15 credit
- Coinbase: https://coinbase.com/lex to get $5 in free Bitcoin
- InsideTracker: https://insidetracker.com/lex and use code Lex25 to get 25% off
- ExpressVPN: https://expressvpn.com/lexpod and use code LexPod to get 3 months free
- Blinkist: https://blinkist.com/lex and use code LEX to get 25% off premium

EPISODE LINKS:
Mark's Facebook: https://facebook.com/zuck
Mark's Instagram: https://instagram.com/zuck
Meta AI: https://ai.facebook.com/

PODCAST INFO:
Podcast website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast
Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr
Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8
RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/
Full episodes playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4
Clips playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOeciFP3CBCIEElOJeitOr41

OUTLINE:
0:00 - Introduction
5:36 - Metaverse
25:36 - Identity in Metaverse
37:45 - Security
42:10 - Social Dilemma
1:04:16 - Instagram whistleblower
1:09:01 - Social media and mental health
1:14:26 - Censorship
1:31:35 - Translation
1:39:10 - Advice for young people
1:44:58 - Daughters
1:47:46 - Mortality
1:52:19 - Question for God
1:55:25 - Meaning of life

SOCIAL:
- Twitter: https://twitter.com/lexfridman
- LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lexfridman
- Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/lexfridman
- Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/lexfridman
- Medium: https://medium.com/@lexfridman
- Reddit: https://reddit.com/r/lexfridman
- Support on Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/lexfridman

The Bed of Procrustes

How to pick a side project strategically

Is Virtual Real Estate in the Metaverse a Good Investment?

It's time to
Read like a Pro.

We analyzed 150+ onboarding experiences. Here are the best user onboarding examples.

CURATED BY

The Bed of Procrustes

How to pick a side project strategically

Is Virtual Real Estate in the Metaverse a Good Investment?

It's time to Read like a Pro.

We analyzed 150+ onboarding experiences. Here are the best user onboarding examples.

CURATED BY

It's time to
Read like a Pro.