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The Four Villains Of Decision Making
  • Narrow framing: the tendency to define our choices too narrowly, to see them in binary terms.
  • Confirmation bias: we are more likely to select the information that supports our preexisting attitudes, beliefs, and actions.
  • Short-term emotion: when we’ve got a difficult decision to make, our feelings churn.
  • Over-confidence: we think they know more than they do about how the future will unfold.
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by Chip Heath, Dan Heath


Problem Solving: An In-Demand Skill

Most job postings nowadays require skill sets related to problem-solving, making it a sought-after ability that job candidates love to put in their resumes. Finding solutions is where the big money is.

Yet we design our lives in a way that is counterintuitive to problem solving.

We are always in production mode, always working, available and doing something. Our mental resources are depleted most of the time, making us ineffective in solving problems.

The planning fallacy

The term 'planning fallacy' was coined in 1977 and deals with how most of us are terrible at estimating how long a project will take. We are overly optimistic but terrible at predicting the future. If the project has a budget, we may underestimate that expense too.

The Sydney Opera House was commissioned in 1957 and had an expected completion date of 1963. The budget was 7 million Australian dollars. After the plan had been scaled back, it was completed in 1973 at the cost of $102 million.

Our Brains Make Us Way Too Optimistic About Meeting Deadlines. Here’s How to Work Around That


If you want to take on big problems. Try thinking like a bee

New month. New day. New leaf. So you’ve woken up and decided you’re finally going to take on the big, big problem that’s been weighing on you — perhaps it’s shoring up your public libraries, helping homeless dogs and cats, or fighting climate change.

If you want to take on big problems, try thinking like a bee


charlie munger

More mental models mean you have more ways to solve more problems.

Don't you want to know all 25 of them

Twenty-Five Useful Thinking Tools | Scott H Young


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