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Paul

@pau556

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Our emotions are obsessed with the present moment because it’s difficult to look past our immediate fears and anxieties. And this prevents good decision-making.

The sweet spot in decision-making is to find the short-term failures that enable huge long-term successes to happen in the first place.

@pau556

Principles for Making Better Life Decisions

markmanson.net

  • Propose “moonshot” ideas, knowing that 90% of them will get shot down, but that if one of them gets accepted, it will be a huge boost to your career.
  • Be excessively bold in your dating life, stating exactly who and what you want.
  • Buy difficult books expecting that most of them won’t be useful to you, but also that, occasionally, one will completely change your life.
  • Say yes to every invitation knowing that most of the events/people will be boring, but that occasionally you’ll meet someone really interesting.

Most of us are afraid of messing thing up. But we rarely ask, “Would I regret that failure?” If the answer is “no,” then that is absolutely a risk you should pursue.

Sometimes, the right decision becomes crystal clear when put into these terms.

The act of writing forces you to organize your brain.

Vague feelings become structured and measured. And rereading what you write reveals your own logic (or lack thereof). It also reveals new perspectives you hadn’t considered.

The importance of focusing on the similarities

When we look at situations, we prefer to look for what is distinct. Instead, we should pay attention to the similarities.

The four words "this time is different" makes us incorrectly think that differences are more valuable than similarities. When your reasoning and plans are based on the differences, you are probably speculating.

This Time is Different: The Four Most Costly Words Ever Spoken

fs.blog

When we focus on the differences, we lose touch with the evidence that the similarities point out. The history of a matter provides context.

  • Consider investors and the dotcom bubble. People saw it as unique. We reasoned that everything would change, and everyone who owned internet companies would prosper. Suddenly profits didn't matter, nor revenue. We thought it would come in time. Market share mattered regardless of the cost to acquire it.
  • We got caught up in the differences and forgot to look at what was the same. Had we looked at the massively transformational industries, such as automobiles, we would've seen that of all the 70 different auto manufacturing operations in the United States, only 3 survived.
Take time out to rest

Sleeping 8 hours a day and taking a time-out to rest is crucial.

Give yourself time to recuperate, in order to perform better at any task, and to recall better what you have studied.

How to Study with INTENSE Focus: 6 Essential Tips

collegeinfogeek.com

Make focus a regular part of your lifestyle, by practicing it progressively on a daily basis.

This means making a commitment to stop using your smartphone for a few hours daily, or not checking it first thing in the morning.

Cal Newport
Don’t take breaks from distraction. Instead take breaks from focus.
Find and develop a routine

A routine will ensure your time is well utilized and you have less unexpected distractions.

Get yourself comfortable in your study table or a cafe where you will not be disturbed, and can tune-out the music or noise to focus on your study work.

Doing one thing at a time

Commit to what you want to study on a particular day, or for a few hours. Limit the number of tasks/distractions/subjects so that you keep your intense focus and actually complete the tasks you started.

Protecting your blocks of focus

Get rid of shallow, low-intensity work and stuff like checking social media on your smartphone, while you focus on your study work. Keep yourself distraction-free at least for the few hours you are studying.

A weekly plan

While focusing on one topic in a day, it helps to have a weekly plan to organize yourself and map your study hours.

The way our mind works

Our brains are wired to work on tasks serially, and not in parallel. This means that we are not wired for multitasking - we are good at focusing on one thing at a time.

The problem is, there are so many distractions these days that we've unconsciously trained our brains to not be good at focusing.

The triple constraint factor

The triple constraint theory tells us that every project operates within the boundaries set by three constraints:

  1. Time (the deadlines)
  2. Scope ( the features)
  3. Cost (the budget)

These constraints are inter-connected. If you change something about one of them, the other two will be impacted as well. A manager has to find the best combination of these three constraints.

A Brief Explanation of the Triple Constraint in Project Management - nTask

ntaskmanager.com

Each task and process in the project have a scheduled time allocated for their completion.

Steps for managing the schedule of the project development process:

  1. Plan schedule management.
  2. Sequence all of the different activities.
  3. Define all of the activities that will be performed in the project.
  4. Estimate the usage of all of the resources that are going to be used in the project.
  5. Estimate the time durations related to each activity.
  6. Develop a proper schedule after analyzing the first five points.
  7. After creating the schedule, control/manage the schedule to ensure that your project is on track.

The budget processes related to the project include estimating the cost of all the little parts.

Methods to estimate the cost of the project.

  • Use historical data. Track and analyze a project similar to yours, which have been developed in the market over the past years.
  • Determine the resource costs. Track the costs of the goods and labor that are going to be used on a per-unit basis.
  • Use different parameters. Measure different stats from the old and new data found in previous and on-going projects.
  • Use bottom-up approach. Track the lowest to highest budgets spent on previous projects.

Other methods for budget estimation are vendor bid, reserve, and quality analysis.

The scope of the project is defining the tasks and activities that are being done in the project development process.

The scope document includes:

  • All the details of the project development process from start to finish.
  • A trajectory in which the project will travel.
  • Information about the potential risks and scope creeps.

In recent years, constraints beyond the triple constraint factor have been discovered. They are:

  • Quality. The project should be developed according to the quality agreed in the project scope.
  • Risk. Risk and scope creeps are "silent" killers when the development team and managers are not expecting any threat from them.
  • Benefit. The benefit of the project element is a great motivator to keep the project development process on track.
The Problem Of Writing A Conclusion

Many authors, article writers and content writers draft samples without a proper conclusion or a wrap-up.

Beginner writers can try to follow the advice on structuring an essay or thesis statement, given by English teachers: “Tell ’em what you’re gonna tell ’em, tell ’em, and then tell ’em what you told ’em.”

Other than that, complex ideas are sometimes difficult to summarize, and there is conflicting advice available, which can be confusing.

How to Write Conclusions That Don’t Suck - Help Scout

helpscout.com

Once an author has stated the idea and offered evidence and anecdotes to support it, the concluding part has to answer the ‘so what?’ question that can crop in the reader’s mind, usually when the end of the article/paper is near.

The reader is satisfied once the main take away is clear, and the questions “Why is this important?” Or “Why should anyone care?” are adequately answered.

A personal touch is a nice trick to create an impactful conclusion.

The readers will identify and would feel a connection with the personal story humanizing the subject at hand.

If something resonates or lingers in the reader's mind, long after the article has been read, then it is a sign that the conclusion was impactful and created an impression.

Asking a direct question or creating a personal challenge makes them think about that idea, and apply it to their lives.

Fuel growth while managing uncertainty
  • Prepare for multiple outcomes that are within your control.
  • Refine your business plan. Adjust your strategies to your business’s current situation so you can update your value proposition.
  • Recognize opportunity to grow. 
  • Get quality control in order. Define what "high-quality" means in terms of your company and its offerings. .
  • Have a firm grasp of key financial numbers and other KPIs so you can make the appropriate changes quickly.
  • Diversify your products and services. 
  • Evaluate how you and your team spend your time. It helps you to stay focused on the tasks that can actually grow your business.

7 Ways to Manage Uncertainty and Growth Simultaneously

entrepreneur.com

George Orwell
“If thought corrupts language, language can also corrupt thought.”

Semantic traps: why vague words are risky

nesslabs.com

Semantic traps

These are ambiguous words used to stir a discussion to a certain direction and to influence people’s judgments. These words don’t have a specific meaning and overall are words that are systemically misleading.

Whenever we talk, we should always be mindful of the words we choose to speak. What we say holds the capability of swaying people's judgements and thoughts.

The word "natural" is a common term we hear in our daily lives. We hear it in advertisements, from our local politicians, and many more.

However, the word "natural" itself is an elusive term and many researchers are trying to provide a precise definition for it. Usually, when we hear the word "natural" we almost always assume that it is "inherently good" even though it is almost always far from its actuality.

We are told often that we should always try to be our most "authentic" selves. We also like trying new and authentic cuisines or even authentic staples in fashion, yet, we do not completely understand what "authentic" means in a world where change is inevitable.

The word is usually used to describe something that is truthful or genuine. As long as qualifying information is provided while using this term, it can lessen the chances of the word being used for semantic traps.

Being an intuitive person means that you are able to feel that something is true without the need of conscious reasoning.

This word should used carefully because it could easily become a semantic trap mindset wherein the "intuitive" person would always rely on their gut feeling more than logical thought processes when making decisions.

Temporal discounting

We tend to pay attention to the present at the expense of the future. Our present self will eat an extra piece of cake, or skip a training session, or procrastinate and leave our future self to deal with the consequences. This is known as temporal discounting.

While in-the-moment decisions don't feel like a big deal, they add up over time.

Temporal discounting: the battle between present and future self

nesslabs.com

We all like to feel good about ourselves in the moment, even if it interferes with our long-term goals.

But instead of letting our present self make the decision, we need to bring our future self into the decision-making process to help us think about the future consequences.

Emotions can be used in two ways: To understand the way we feel, and to use it proactively to influence our future behaviour.

Regret happens after an event. We can't change the past, but we can harness regret to improve our future by visualising how our future self will feel about the decision we make now. If you think that your future self will feel fine about the decision, then it is a perfectly valid conclusion.

We don't always have the mental energy to visualize the potential feelings of our future self. In these moments, we can use the 10-10-10 approach.
Ask yourself three questions to help you project yourself in the future:

  1. What are the consequences of this decision in 10 minutes?
  2. What are the consequences in 10 months?
  3. What are the consequences in 10 years?
Simulating a crisis

Modeling systems are used to provide a better understanding of a bad situation and how to possibly prevent it.

Groups of researchers, teams of engineers and companies are dedicated to simulate a range of disasters to help us all be better prepared.

The people who imagine disasters

bbc.com

  • A model is just a series of calculations that abstractly represent some systems in the real world. We use models all the time.
  • We may work out the routes we could take to get to work at a specific time of the day. We use past data to make predictions about what we can expect in the future in a given set of circumstances.
  • As the volume of data and the number of variables increase, the computational task would increase.
  • Powerful models aim to forecast inherently unpredictable events and make use of machine learning to look for patterns in the data that would otherwise be missed.

You can never accurately predict what's going to happen. Some efforts come close.

For example, models looking at the weather can achieve more than 90% accuracy. But crises are about change, and a model working from historical data may miss a dramatic and new change.

Knowing how people will respond in different situations is essential if you hope to keep them safe during a crisis. A type of simulation known as agent-based modelling attempts to understand interpersonal behaviours.

In stadiums, crowds of people can behave very differently depending on who they are and what kind of event has brought them to the venue. Depending on what sort of crowds are expected, architects may adjust the number of exits or the staircase designs to ensure a steady flow out of the venue during an evacuation. Modeling helps by getting the balance right.

The overview effect

Amid the turbulence of the current global situation or any crisis, astrophysicist and science communicator Neil deGrasse Tyson thinks we could all use the overview effect to put it all back into perspective.

Most astronauts who have seen the Earth from space, report being changed deeply and profoundly by the experience.

Earth from space: 'Overview effect' could help troubled country, astrophysicist Neil deGrasse Tyson says

livescience.com

Edgar Mitchell
"You develop an instant global consciousness, a people orientation, an intense dissatisfaction with the state of the world and a compulsion to do something about it. From out there on the moon, international politics look so petty."

When you view Earth from space, there are no boundaries. Humankind is one species. But, despite all the remarkable achievements of humankind, we are failing each other.

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