Prediction is a tricky business
Chaos theory tells us it's impossible to predict the future. We can't see the black swan events or unexpected technology, but we can do a Monte Carlo analysis and see the major pathways.
Reasons people get the future so wrong:
- They dedicate about five minutes to looking at something before they form an opinion on it.
- It goes against everything people understand about the world.
- Because it challenges their position of power. They can't see clearly because they are the main beneficiaries of the current system.
- They mistake opinion for reality.
12
59 reads
CURATED FROM
IDEAS CURATED BY
The idea is part of this collection:
Learn more about technologyandthefuture with this collection
Understanding the basics of blockchain technology
The benefits and challenges of using blockchain
The future of blockchain technology
Related collections
Similar ideas to Prediction is a tricky business
Without a specific purpose, there is nothing to pursue
In these instances, it is extremely difficult to see specific results. Narrowing and clearly identifying our intention directs us to attain very specific results because a purpose-driven mentality does the following:
- Instills faith that we can achieve.
"Sour-grape" vs "The grass is greener on the other side"
- "The grass is always greener on the other side" suggests that people spend much of their time longing for things they don't have.
- In Aesop's fable of "The Fox and the Grapes", the fox walked away from the grapes he desired because he could not reach i...
On our own, we have a very natural tendency to process the world in a way that supports our prior view of the world
- Even if you are aware of the biases, you're still susceptible to them
- Smarter people who know about them are even worse because:
- Once they know about the bias, they're overconfident in thinking they can avoid them
- The...
Read & Learn
20x Faster
without
deepstash
with
deepstash
with
deepstash
Personalized microlearning
—
100+ Learning Journeys
—
Access to 200,000+ ideas
—
Access to the mobile app
—
Unlimited idea saving
—
—
Unlimited history
—
—
Unlimited listening to ideas
—
—
Downloading & offline access
—
—
Supercharge your mind with one idea per day
Enter your email and spend 1 minute every day to learn something new.
I agree to receive email updates