Today’s user experience in crypto is awful. Mistype something or copy and paste wrong, and your money disappears forever. If there’s a software glitch or someone hacks my computer or phone, my money is gone forever.
We’ll need algorithmic approximations of the controls we have now for giving money to people we want and keeping it out of the hands of people who want to rob us. We also need the system to protect us from accidents, death and going insane.
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Crypto enthusiasts will have to come to terms with the fact that the blockchain can and will enable as much evil as it does good.
Nothing is all good or evil. Everything exists on a continuum. You can kill someone with a gun, but you can also feed your family by hunting. Water sustains life, but it can also drown you or even poison you. Open systems tend toward centralization, and with enough time, central powers can and will corrupt any system to their own ends.
Chaos theory tells us it's impossible to predict the future. We can't see the black swan events or unexpected technology, but we can do a Monte Carlo analysis and see the major pathways.
Reasons people get the future so wrong:
Bitcoin has a first-mover advantage. It's the first of its kind and dominates the global market share. However, it also suffers from significant flaws that could kill it.
It's the Model T of the blockchain revolution.
Government cryptos will be a very, very bitter pill to swallow for current true believers in the crypto space, but they better get used to them. They will outlaw physical cash, and they will do it under the guise of one of three excuses:
In a decade or two, expect every strong government cryptocurrencies to come to power and dominate most of the flow of money. Government crypto will represent a complete corruption of the idea of decentralised crypto and apps. But it won't matter. It will happen anyway.
All of our economic theories are based on studies conducted with limited data in the analogue age of ink and wood pulp. All current economic theory will prove about as advanced as cave paintings as we experiment with new economic systems.
New coins are micro-economic systems at war. Many will fall by the wayside.
AI will track statistics in real-time around the globe, and we'll be able to track global production and manufacturing with precision.
People from the World War II generation had one or two jobs their whole life. Today we have five or six. Tomorrow’s people will have five or six at the same time.
Half of those income streams will be automated and passive, likely some kind of crypto UBI. We will also see the rise of AI job matching services. The machines will know your capabilities and skill sets and match short term gigs to you so you don’t even have to look for a job.
Just because centralized cryptos rise to prominence doesn’t mean the decentralized cryptos will go away. Many governments will try, but they’ll fail to stamp them out.
The reasons are simple: The same factors that make it hard to form consensus across a blockchain, make it hard for all the world’s governments to agree on anything. If all countries can't agree, then decentralised crypto will stay.
People in and out of crypto see them as a bubble that will pop, causing prices to crash badly. They're right, but it is just the beginning of the story. After the pop, real working ideas will emerge.
Crypto, blockchain and triple entry accounting are probably the most important invention of the last 500 years, so they're not going to go gently into that good night. The bubble burst is just the next step. Three years after that, the tech will really mature and take off running.
At the moment, we're making coins for everything. But you don't really need a coin.
Coins will start to shake out into various meta categories:
A universal system can be built with these four coins. All other coins will act as a subcomponent.
An NFT is essentially a digital token representing a totally unique asset, such as a piece of fine art or real estate . When represented by an NFT, an asset can be easily traded digitally across the world on blockchain technology. NFT concert ticket s and plane tickets are already beginning to pull the technology away from solely being about art trading and into other practical use cases.
In the middle of the 2008 banking crisis, a group of anarchists, libertarians, and other tech-savvy true believers created digital cash.
In August 2008, bitcoin dot org was registered as a domain. On Halloween the same year, Satoshi Nakamoto put up a whitepaper describing a decentralised system of electronic transactions that did not involve a financial institution.
Bitcoin is a peer-to-peer online currency, meaning that all transactions happen directly between equal, independent network participants, without the need for any intermediary to permit or facilitate them. Bitcoin was created to allow “online payments to be sent directly from one party to another without going through a financial institution.”
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