When you accept that tails drive everything in business, investing, and finance you realize that it’s normal for lots of things to go wrong, break, fail, and fall.
If you’re a good stock picker you’ll be right maybe half the time.
If you’re a good business leader maybe half of your product and strategy ideas will work.
If you’re a good investor most years will be just OK, and plenty will be bad.
If you’re a good worker you’ll find the right company in the right field after several attempts and trials.
And that’s if you’re good.
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Understanding Money
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You can be wrong half the time and still make a fortune.
Anything that is huge, profitable, famous, or influential is the result of a tail event, an outlying one-in-thousands or millions event.
If you can accept uncertainty, you’ll be open to many more opportunities.
If you’re afraid of uncertainty, you’ll skip starting a business, for example. You can’t really know for sure how things will turn out, and so if you have this need to control the outcome, you’ll avoid great oppo...
• Investors are right (and wrong) all the time for the “wrong reason.” Someone buys a stock because he or she expects a certain development; it doesn’t occur; the market takes the stock up anyway; the investor looks good (and invariably accepts credit).
• The correctness of a decision can’t...
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