The piece debunks the misleading nature of precise predictions, especially in predicting stock prices. It asserts that while financial figures can be estimated, the emotional aspect – the 'story' investors attach to those numbers – is impossible to predict accurately.The author draws a parallel between predicting market returns and predicting people's future moods, emphasizing the inherent uncertainty in both scenarios.

1. Predicting things that are impossible to know

<ul><li>Bullshit is everywhere, influential, and dangerous.</li><li>Information turns into bullshit as easily as ice turns into water.</li><li>Bullshit stops just short of a lie, mixing the integrity of the truth with the deceit of a lie in a way that leaves both the 'bullshiter' and his recipient feeling satisfied.</li><li>Bullshit comes in countless forms, some harder to spot than others.</li><li>False modesty, projecting, double standards, hypocrisy, tugging at heartstrings – these aren’t lies; they’re subtle forms of bullshit, which is why they’re so prevalent.</li><li>Ignorance of your luck at the cost of misfortune of others.</li></ul>

To sum up

The article highlights the prevalence, influence, and danger of bullshit. It focuses on various forms of bullshit that often go unnoticed but have a significant impact.

Not all success is due to hard work and not all failure is due to laziness. Even if you agree with that, it’s astounding how easy it is to jump to conclusions.In most cases of extreme success or failure, the line between bold and reckless was thin.What separates the billionaires from the bankruptcies can be the slimmest movement – one customer’s choice, a judge’s decision, or a fluke where fate went one way when it easily could have gone the other.

4. Ignorance of your own luck or others’ misfortune

The article points out the tendency to highlight rewards without considering the accompanying costs, leading to dissatisfaction and unhappiness. It uses investing as an example, where potential returns are emphasized while volatility and challenges are downplayed.The author warns against overlooking the complete picture of rewards and costs, and how this incomplete perspective contributes to unhappiness.

2. Presenting an upside reward with no regard to the associated cost

Unnecessary complexity is criticized, with Stephen King's perspective on writing serving as an example in his book On Writing:This is a short book because most books about writing are filled with bullshit. I figured the shorter the book, the less bullshit.Poetry.Simplicity is championed, and the author asserts that shorter, less complex approaches often contain less 'bullshit.'

3. Unnecessary complexity

A form of bullshit occurs when that goes overlooked, and success is used as a superiority lever against the less successful.The truth is often the less successful are just as insightful as their successful peers, because they’re just as smart but happened to end up on the unfortunate side of risk.

There are three important facts about bullshit: It’s everywhere, it’s influential, and it’s dangerous.

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Types of people