The gambler's fallacy - Deepstash

The gambler's fallacy

You said that 'runs' occur to statistically independent phenomena such as roulette wheel spins.

This commonly believed fallacy can be said to have helped create an entire city in the desert of Nevada USA. Though the overall odds of a 'big run' happening may be low, each spin of the wheel is itself entirely independent from the last. So whilst there may be a very small chance that heads will come up 20 times in a row if you flip a coin, the chances of heads coming up on each individual flip remain 50/50, and aren't influenced by what happened before.

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24 most common logical fallacies

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The Gambler Fallacy

It makes us certain without a doubt that if the flipped coin lands a heads up five times consecutively, it will land as tails up the sixth time. The real odds still stand at 50-50 for each flip.

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