Weapons are an important factor in war, but not the decisive factor; it is people, not things that are decisive. The contest of strength is not only a contest of military and economic power, but also a contest of human power and morale. People necessarily wield military and economic power.
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Economic history can seem complicated because it's part of politics, psychology, sociology, criminology, biology, military, technology, education, finance, etc. But within all that complexity is a lot of similarities.
Surprises are constant, and not necessarily because we’re bad at predicting, but because everything important in the economy is driven by power laws where a tiny portion of things are responsible for the majority of outcomes. No single forecaster can track every moving part.
.. is when there is a loss of machinery, infrastructure and people, be it from war, or natural disasters.
The rebuilding of physical decline can also provide a powerful economic boost. This can also lead to inflation, as the capacity to make goods has been destroyed.
Losing people due t...
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