The Trillion-Dollar Manufacturing Exports Opportunity for India - Deepstash

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Bain Report: 1 trillion India Manufacturing Exports in 2028

$418 billion Exports in  FY2022

40% growth over FY2021  

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six megatrends driving Indian Exports

  • supply chain diversification
  • Sectoral Advantages 
  • Government initiatives
  • CAPEX infusion into manufacturing
  • M&A activity
  • PE/VC led investment in manufacturing.

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key Sectors

  1. Chemicals
  2. Pharmaceuticals
  3. Electronics
  4. Automotive
  5. Industrial machinery
  6. textiles

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Lot of Room for growth

  • India : sixth-largest economy
  • 3.1% of the GDP
  • 1.6% only of global trade

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Top 15 export categories accounted for over 72% of total export

BAIN

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Supply chain diversification:

  1. China Covid Lockdown 
  2. China Geo-political Risk 
  3. ESHA :: lesser polluting industries in .in

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Sectoral advantages:

Sectoral advantages:

  1. India’s cost advantage
  2. Strong supplier base
  3. R&D capabilities
  4. Samsung, Wistron, and Foxconn 

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Government-led initiatives:

  1. PLI outlay of $47.8 billion 
  2. 13 key sectors, resulting in an overall increase in exports. 
  3. fresh infusion of investment of nearly $50 billion, with a production increase of about $500 billion in the next five years.
  4. electronics, pharmaceutical, automotive, advanced chemistry cell (ACC) battery, solar, and white goods (home appliance) sectors, 

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Investments : FDI

  1. FDI investments increased by about 65% between 2015 and 2020
  2. Free-trade agreements (FTAs)
  3. India-UAE Comprehensive Partnership Agreement (CEPA)
  4. India-Australia Economic Cooperation and Trade Agreement (IndAus ECTA)

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Capex-led growth:

35% year-over-year (YOY) 

 FY23 ~ $100 billion

 6X More Capex in 5Y 

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M&As

  1.  $108 billion in M&A deals in India in 2021
  2.  Scope acquisitions outside companies’ core operations == 4/10 
  3.  First-time buyers == 80%
  4. 15.7% == manufacturing sector
  5. Cross-border M&A == 3X in 4Y to 2021 

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PE/VC-led investments:

$70 billion in 2021

55% UP since 2019

Buoyancy in Manufacturing 

Focus : Pharma + Chemicals 

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Future OF Manufacturing Business

  1. Contract Research and Manufacturing Services (CRAMS)
  2. Contract Development & Manufacturing Organisations (CDMO) 
  3. operations globally
  4. rising cost competitiveness of India.

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Sectors to watch out for : Key investment opportunities would emerge here 

BAIN

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pharma

  1. CAGR of 16%–18% = ~$50 billion
  2. low cost of manufacturing (30%–35% lower than in the US and Europe), 
  3. cost-efficient R&D (about 87% less than in developed markets), 
  4. cheap skilled labour.

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Industrial machinery

  1. CAGR of 18%–20% ~$75 billion
  2. demand from developing markets
  3. low cost + PLIs
  4. 100% FDI
  5. higher M&A activities.

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17 reads

Electronics

  1. CAGR of 35%–40% ~$145 billion
  2. strong manufacturing technology 
  3. R&D capabilities 
  4. end-to-end supply chain improvement.
  5. Mobile phone exports = 5X+5Y 

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19 reads

Automotive

  1. CAGR of 15%–18% ~$55 billion
  2. electric vehicles (EVs): CAGR of 37%.
  3. low-cost manufacturing
  4. Strong supplier
  5. key market Penetration like AFR and LATAM 
  6. $3.5 billion outlay for clean energy 

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Textile and apparel

  1. CAGR 13%–16% ~$110 billion
  2. Complete value chain
  3. Competitive cost 
  4. PLI scheme ~$1.42 billion
  5. Preferential market access to 43 countries under 15 trade agreements

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Imperatives for export acceleration for companies

  1. Define Clear roadmap : products, geographies, and customers
  2. operations models: Direct; Partners; Acquisition 
  3. Supply Chain Robustness 
  4. business planning: Cash flow & Risk Models 
  5. skills : Legal; Internation Relations; Tech - IPR 

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55 reads

CURATED BY

gopu44

Founder startup, analytics, creative thinking

India growth story in manufacturing would provide a feeder for investment ; research into these reports would be a good start towards stock ideas

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