Lucky you are, you can make a wonderful bet. At equal propabilities :<ul><li>50% : You receive 120 $</li><li>50% : You lose 100 $</li></ul>Stop reading, would you accept this ?---If you're like the majority of us, you refused this gamble.Our brain is not familiar with statistics. You don't think to the utility of the bet, you see two situations :<ol><li>You change your current situation. You win a little quantity of money, cool. OR you lose almost the same amount, you swear against yourself, what an idiot decision</li><li>You don't change your situation, nothing happens</li></ol>This is the loss aversion, our brain tends to avoid losses.

Loss aversion : Why you're not already rich

Your mind likes the feeling of coherence and sentiment of habit, of déjà-vu. From an evolutionnary point of view, Sapiens needs to have a construction of reality clear. <ul><li>Do you have to treat with this plant ? No, you recognize those red berries that causes flu.</li></ul>D. Kahnemann calls this process the System 1. This is a cognitive agent which is trying to explain all of you hear, see and feel by a causal link. A first way to improve your critical mind is to admit that chance, at least multiple causes make events happen. <ul><li>Explain that WW2 is caused by the madness of Hitler is simple, not accurate.</li></ul>

Main cause of biased judgment

Good stories are simple. And when they seem coherent, we accept them without activating our critical mind (see "Main cause of biased judgment" in this collection). In particular, the conspiracy theories have another viral weapon. As the elements which take part of the theory are batching and seem plausible, you tend to strenghten your thoughts without taking into account what is belying them. This is the confirmation bias.As you're sure that D Trump is fighting the "deep state", he accuses the media to spread fake news. Bim 'n boom ! You begin to believe that Thanos manage TV and papers.

Confirmation bias : How powerful are conspiracy-theories

Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In the international bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Understand yourself and those around you.

psychology

Psychology

business

Business

books

Books

scienceandnature

Science & Nature

Major New York Times bestseller Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award in 2012 Selected by the New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011 A Globe and Mail Best Books of the Year 2011 Title One of The Economist's 2011 Books of the Year One of The Wall Street Journal's Best Nonfiction Books of the Year 2011 2013 Presidential Medal of Freedom Recipient Kahneman's work with Amos Tversky is the subject of Michael Lewis's The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds In his mega bestseller, Thinking, Fast and Slow, Daniel Kahneman, the renowned psychologist and winner of the Nobel Prize in Economics, takes us on a groundbreaking tour of the mind and explains the two systems that drive the way we think. System 1 is fast, intuitive, and emotional; System 2 is slower, more deliberative, and more logical. The impact of overconfidence on corporate strategies, the difficulties of predicting what will make us happy in the future, the profound effect of cognitive biases on everything from playing the stock market to planning our next vacation—each of these can be understood only by knowing how the two systems shape our judgments and decisions. Engaging the reader in a lively conversation about how we think, Kahneman reveals where we can and cannot trust our intuitions and how we can tap into the benefits of slow thinking. He offers practical and enlightening insights into how choices are made in both our business and our personal lives—and how we can use different techniques to guard against the mental glitches that often get us into trouble. Winner of the National Academy of Sciences Best Book Award and the Los Angeles Times Book Prize and selected by The New York Times Book Review as one of the ten best books of 2011, Thinking, Fast and Slow is destined to be a classic.

Daniel Kahneman (born 5 March 1934) is an Israeli-American psychologist and winner of the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, notable for his work on behavioral finance and hedonic psychology.With Amos Tversky and others, Kahneman established a cognitive basis for common human errors using heuristics and biases (Kahneman & Tversky, 1973, Kahneman, Slovic & Tversky, 1982), and developed Prospect theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979). He was awarded the 2002 Nobel Prize in Economics for his work in Prospect theory. Currently, he is professor emeritus of psychology at Princeton University's Department of Psychology.