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The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
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The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient saying that presumed black swans did not...
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19 | Generalist, Content Creator, Student at Christ University. Stashing about entrepreneurship, self-help, spirituality and the most interesting stuff I read.
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Part of the expected value is estimating the chance or probability of the situation.
Many people have poor judgement calculating real probabilities. They overstate the chance of rare events and underestimate the possibility of common events.
For example, many people d...
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