Calculating the odds

Part of the expected value is estimating the chance or probability of the situation.

Many people have poor judgement calculating real probabilities. They overstate the chance of rare events and underestimate the possibility of common events.

For example, many people don't like to fly on planes because they are scared they might be in a crash, yet the actual chance is close to zero.

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Here's a Better Way to Deal With Life's Risks

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time.com
Here's a Better Way to Deal With Life's Risks

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