A mental trick!
After he reveals to you that one of his door has no prize...he offers to switch your door for his.
Should you?
Our initial assumption is that now there are two doors.
You have a 50% chance...he has a 50% chance...
Right?
WRONG!
When working with restricted choice...you must adjust the probabilities to reflect restricted choice.
Remember the initial probabilities.
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Switch!
Because the host has played his no prize door...restricted choice principle states that the likelihood that his other door has no prize is now decreased.
Remember the intial probabilities have not changed. The doors weren't reshuffled.
You still picked a door with a 66% chance of it ...
Restricted Choice
The Monty Hall Problem is based on an old TV Game Show.
You choose one door. The host gets the other two. One door has a prize, the other two have nothing.
The host has a 100% chance of getting 1 door with no prize.
He has a 66% chance of getting 1 door with a prize
He h...
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