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Kelly Criterion: Avoid Ruin

Kelly Criterion: Avoid Ruin

The Kelly criterion is a popularized mathematical formulation of a simple concept: Don’t risk everything. Stay out of jail. Don’t bet everything on one big gamble. Be careful how much you bet each time, so you don’t lose the whole kitty.

The number one way people get ruined in modern business is not by betting too much; it’s by cutting corners and doing unethical or downright illegal things. Ending up in an orange jumpsuit in prison or having a reputation ruined is the same as getting wiped to zero—so never do those things

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It is a game theory by Thomas Schelling. It’s about multiplayer games where people respond based on what they think the other person’s response will be.

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