We use probability to assess how risky something is, such as an investment or an action we want to take. But if we just use probability to assess risk, we fail to take into account how bad the potential negative outcomes will be if they do occur.
For example, would you rather get
The expected value is the same, but the negative results in the second scenario would be really bad. The risk is much higher.
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How not to be deceived by mathematical traps.
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