False linearity - Deepstash

False linearity

False linearity

People often assume that the rate of change of a quantity will remain the same over time.

If obesity increased 1% last year, they assume the same will happen in the following years. One research paper concluded that 100% of Americans will be obese by 2048, then applied false linearity to the same data and concluded that only 80% of black men will be obese at that time. 

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