Regression to the Mean - Deepstash
Regression to the Mean

Regression to the Mean

Success or failure are typically outliers due to luck and people/things regress to their usual performance (the mean, or the prior).

For example: in a sports competition, an athlete that does much better than the rest on the first day will most likely perform worse on the following ones, because he attained the initial performance in part due to chance.

Intuitively, this is how success is defined:

  • success = talent + luck
  • great success = a little more talent + a lot of luck

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