Intuitive Predictions - Deepstash

Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions

Intuitive Predictions

An easy way of making predictions by taking into account uncertainty and the natures of the 2 systems:

  • Start with an estimate of the average answer;
  • Determine your estimate (performed by System 1);
  • Estimate the correlation between your evidence and the target (performed by System 2);
  • Use the correlation to move that many percents from the average to the estimate.

For example: to estimate your GPA, start from the average GPA and set your expected GPA. Estimate how confident you are in your prediction. The predicted GPA will be closer to your expectation if your confidence is higher.

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