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When trying to pick the best among many options, how many samples should you try before you commit? This is known as the optimal stopping problem.
Mathematicians tell us that, to maximize the chances of the best outcome, we ought to ditch the first 37% of any options. In psychology, people tend to either "explore" or "exploit" more.
But, sadly for us, relationships are a bit messier than probability would have it.
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Mathematics offers us the best answer to the “optimal stopping problem.” But there’s just one big issue with it: Humans are not rational probability-crunching machines. In fact, the opposite is usually true. We’re beautifully, infuriatingly, creatively, and messily chaotic.
In psychology an...
The primary puzzle is asking how long do you spend sampling options to give the optimum chances of a successful final decision? How many frogs must you kiss to secure your chances of getting a prince?
Mathematicians have given us an answer: 37%. The basic idea is that, if y...
The world of interpersonal relations is hard to put a number on. Probabilities and game theory do funny things when you input the wobbly, fuzzy variables at play in human behaviour.
But the biggest problem with the 37% rule, or the idea of “exploring,” when...
The biggest problem in life isn`t the problem itself, but how people act upon it.
The optimal sample rate while deciding on something.
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