Jeff Bezos explains the perfect way to make risky business decisions
It is better than nothing. Being slow leads you nowhere but being wrong while moving fast can lead you somewhere eventually.
SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
"The best measure of quality thinking is your ability to accurately predict the consequences of your ideas a..."
Before jumping to a conclusion, think about the long-term consequences of your decision.
We may respect those able to fling themselves into a hard problem and make a quick choice with seemingly little thought, but making a meaningful decision needs to be done with care for the long-term effects.
It’s important to be aware of what state of mind you’re in before tackling a hard choice.
Decision fatigue happens when the mental energy required to weigh the tradeoffs of our decision becomes too much for us to handle.
90% of your daily decisions happen automatically, many shaped by your environment. Thus, most decisions are a habit, not a deliberate choice.
To make smarter choices, design smarter...
Design your life like a choice architect:
“First, never underestimate the power of inertia. Second, that power can be harnessed.”
What’s more important than how much data you have is how it frames the way you think.
Some leader when they're under pressure to appear decisive, approach complex situa...
He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.
His theorem describes the probability of an event, based on prior knowledge of conditions that might be related to the event.
Data can be imperfect, incomplete, or uncertain. Most of the time, there is more than one explanation for why things happened the way they did; by examining those alternative explanations using probability, you can gain a better understanding of causality and what is really going on.