The study of knowledge and justified belief within a degreed framework using formal methods, especially probability theory with emphasis on Bayes’s theorem.
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The historical significance of urban centers
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The role of urban centers in shaping society
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He wondered how he could predict the probability of a future event if he only knew how many times it had occurred, or not, in the past. Bayes figured out that even when it comes to uncertain outcomes, we can update our knowledge by incorporating new, relevant information as it becomes available.
One method is to ask the people with knowledge about the functioning of the organization, what could go wrong. It can be done using brainstorming, questionnaires, self-reporting etc.
We form mental models of learning, and see any new information based on our pre-existing belief patterns, assumptions, and education, forming a framework of information in our minds.
The new information could easily be rejected if it does not integrate into the existing framework.
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