Typically written as P(H|E) in Bayes’s theorem, it is the result of conditionalizing a hypothesis H on an incoming piece of evidence E, read as “the probability of the hypothesis given the evidence.”
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We often feel anecdotes from people we know more persuasive than scientific evidence. This is because we don’t understand statistics well.
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Oh yes; the biggest problems tend to arise when investors forget about the difference between probability and outcome—that is, when they forget about the limits on foreknowledge:
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