Perfectly Confident

Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors. 

1. First: Consider how you might be wrong.
2. Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.
3. Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.
4. Fourth: Define and measure performance.
5. Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.
6. Sixth: Tap others’ perspectives.
7. Seventh: Seek and believe the truth.