Perfectly Confident - Deepstash
Perfectly Confident

Perfectly Confident

Don A. Moore

9 ideas


1.48K reads


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Perfectly Confident

Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors. 

  1. First: Consider how you might be wrong.
  2. Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.
  3. Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.
  4. Fourth: Define and measure performance.
  5. Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.
  6. Sixth: Tap others’ perspectives.
  7. Seventh: Seek and believe the truth.


285 reads

Overconfidence and underconfidence are common and problematic. To calibrate them, weigh seven factors.

“Well-calibrated confidence is the map that can guide your life choices about what to undertake.”


246 reads

First: Consider how you might be wrong.

“Honest, constructive feedback is so valuable that there’s only one way to respond: ‘Thank you’. ” (Rich Lyons, former dean of the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley)


221 reads

Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.

To improve your predictions, ask other people whether they think something will happen and have them estimate the odds that they’re right. This works best with people trained how to see and measure uncertainty. Thinking through the likelihood of various outcomes and considering what happened in the past can help you grasp the range of possibilities, make better forecasts and thus make better decisions.


141 reads

Third: Calculate the expected value of an outcome.

“Being able to explain the basis for your confident beliefs will make them more persuasive to others.”


134 reads

Fourth: Define and measure performance.

“Although it can be painful to admit that your critics are right, confronting our imperfections opens the way to improvement.”


121 reads

Fifth: Consider what could go wrong.

“When a company is formulating strategy, it is useful to consider critiques, problems and likely reasons for failure.”


113 reads

Sixth: Tap others’ perspectives.

“Others’ disagreement is…a gift of great value, but it is not always easy to appreciate it.”


112 reads

Seventh: Seek and believe the truth.

“Honestly communicating the real uncertainty about uncertain things is a viable strategy for aspiring leaders.”


111 reads



Industrial Mastery, Mentor, Light Worker, Nutritionist, Gymrat


How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely


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