instructor Hood's Key Ideas from Perfectly Confident
by Don A. Moore

“Honest, constructive feedback is so valuable that there’s only one way to respond: ‘Thank you’. ” (Rich Lyons, former dean of the Haas School of Business, UC Berkeley)

To improve your predictions, ask other people whether they think something will happen and have them estimate the odds that they’re right. This works best with people trained how to see and measure uncertainty. Thinking through the likelihood of various outcomes and considering what happened in the past can help you grasp the range of possibilities, make better forecasts and thus make better decisions.

“Being able to explain the basis for your confident beliefs will make them more persuasive to others.”

“Although it can be painful to admit that your critics are right, confronting our imperfections opens the way to improvement.”

“When a company is formulating strategy, it is useful to consider critiques, problems and likely reasons for failure.”

“Others’ disagreement is…a gift of great value, but it is not always easy to appreciate it.”

“Honestly communicating the real uncertainty about uncertain things is a viable strategy for aspiring leaders.”