Second: Assess the probability that you’re right. - Deepstash

Second: Assess the probability that you’re right.

To improve your predictions, ask other people whether they think something will happen and have them estimate the odds that they’re right. This works best with people trained how to see and measure uncertainty. Thinking through the likelihood of various outcomes and considering what happened in the past can help you grasp the range of possibilities, make better forecasts and thus make better decisions.

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sliceofhood

Industrial Mastery, Mentor, Light Worker, Nutritionist, Gymrat

How to Calibrate Your Decisions Wisely

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