MORE IDEAS FROM The path to the next normal
As the current health crisis steamrolls into an economic crisis unparalleled for the last 100 years, the decline in economic activity is already at par with the great depression.
This crisis of global proportions requires resilience, both for near-term issues like liquidity and cash flow, as well as long-term issues like uncertainty, personal financial stress and recovering from multiple challenges that were already present and are now further complicated due to the pandemic.
As we can see most of our interactions, learnings and commercial transactions moving into online and virtual models, many other aspects of our daily lives will have to be reimagined and the leaders who have better insight and foresight will succeed. Many industries will have their existing business models completely disrupted, revealing vulnerabilities and new opportunities.
Luxurious but unessential items may have to change their business models or shut shop.
Returning to operative environments is extremely challenging, with reactivation of disrupted supply chains at multiple points and widespread disruption overall.
Leaders should reassess their entire business logistics and supply chain, planning for contingent actions. There is also an added threat of the resurfacing of the virus during winter, even if it subsides in the coming months, which can lead to a renewed crisis if we do not have a vaccine or any effective treatment in place by then.
The measures to stop the spread of the virus are well-known by now: staying home in lockdown, working from home as a default option, schools switching from physical classrooms to e-learning models.
Not every country has been able to make these choices fast, due to a combination of hesitation, inaction, and paralysis. Before any decision is made, the first thing to do is determine what needs to be done and at what pace and scale.
This ongoing global challenge will help identify existing faultlines and widespread practices that are toxic and are degenerating the environment but were neglected in the past due to the absence of a ‘black-swan’ event like the pandemic.
The current pandemic has led to an economic free fall which is unparalleled in history. In the US alone, the unemployment rate plummeted at such a speed that more than 10 million have claimed unemployment insurance in a matter of three weeks.
With over 30 percent of the U.S. population expected to be unemployed by this summer, and the GDP shrinking at a faster rate that the Great Depression of the 1930s, the current situation is uncharted territory, even for the experts.
Growth evangelists are right when they state that severe lockdowns produce a parallel human misery of unemployment, looming bankruptcies, and extreme financial anguish. Yet, opening the economy too soon may produce mass death.
We need a new playbook for pandemic economics to govern our short-term reaction to the health crises.
Facts will minimize your fear. There are two sources to use for managing fear in the new virus response: The World Health Organization and your national authority.
With all the headlines of news outlets, there's a risk of an infodemic where misinformation spreads. It can lead to increased anxiety and fear.
❤️ Brainstash Inc.