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Innovation and Unpredictability

Innovation and Unpredictability

Becoming innovative often involves making decisions within an unpredictable world. The future is hard to predict, and many variables come into play, like the fog of war. To prepare, innovators imagine different paths and scenarios.

  • Unpredictability: A key aspect of innovation
  • Pre-Planning: Imagining and preparing for various scenarios
  • Pivot: Adjusting and adapting strategies as situations change

Great innovators consider their plans as hypotheses - firm but open to testing and modifications through the execution process.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

Extreme Risk-Taking in Business and Personal Life

Extreme Risk-Taking in Business and Personal Life

Learn how to be an extreme risk-taker in business and lead a calm personal life. Benefits:

  • Be like successful businessman Marc and never use debt in business.
  • Enjoy a peaceful ...

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99 reads

Input Data Set

Input Data Set

AI got better because of larger datasets.

Modern facial recognition AIs are trained on billions of photos from the internet.

The days of distinguishing “real” vs. “fake” are over...

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70 reads

Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Motivation

Intrinsic vs. Extrinsic Motivation

Great innovators are establishing neural circuitry that reinforces the self and the process of being oneself.

Extrinsic vs. intrinsic motivation:

  • Steve Jobs

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Trust in institutions over time:

Trust in institutions over time:

  • Congress and journalists have the lowest levels of trust, with scores around 10%.
  • Gallup polls have tracked trust in institutions since the 1970s.
  • Trust in many categories of instituti...

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89 reads

History of Computers, Neural Networks, and AI

History of Computers, Neural Networks, and AI

Computers modeled after the human brain have been around since 1943, leading to the concept of neural networks.

  • In computer programs, bugs are always the programmer's fault, not the computer's, as co...

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76 reads

Marketing, Moral Panic & New Technology; Politics

Marketing, Moral Panic & New Technology; Politics

Throughout history, every new technology has been met with a “moral panic”. These panics often led to predictions of doomsday scenarios.

Examples of past moral panics

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    Three-stage societal response to new technologies:

    Three-stage societal response to new technologies:

    • Denial.
    • Rational counter-arguments.
    • Name-calling.

    AI has already moved past the denial stage,

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    68 reads

    MARC ANDREESSEN

    AI will make it easier for bad people to do bad things.

    MARC ANDREESSEN

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    72 reads

    Innovator Development, Courage, Support

    Innovator Development, Courage, Support

    How to foster innovation in today’s world?

    • You have to be signed up for the fight.
    • It’s a contact sport, these aren’t easy roads.
    • The ad...

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    59 reads

    “Wild Ducks”

    Marc talks about IBM’s system, where most employees were expected to follow rules and procedures meticulously:

    • There was a special category of employees known as “wild ducks,” innovator...

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    55 reads

    Capitalism Works: Creative Destruction

    Capitalism Works: Creative Destruction

    In a capitalist system, when old companies fail, they are replaced by newer and better ones. This is a sign of a healthy market economy.

    Unlike other industries, it is illegal for companies to conspire together in th...

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    78 reads

    ChatGPT

    ChatGPT

    Chat GPT works well because it’s trained on the entire internet of text:

    • The version used today is trained on data up until September 2021.
    • Most of this data was written by hum...

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    68 reads

    Small Groups vs. Large Organization

    Small Groups vs. Large Organization

    How can small groups defeat larger organizations? Large organizations have more resources but struggle with execution due to excessive overhead and bureaucracy:

    • Many people need to be consulted and agree on decisions...

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    56 reads

    Innovators & Personal Relationships

    Innovators & Personal Relationships

    Being in a relationship with an innovator has its challenges:

    • Their highly disagreeable traits can cause conflicts.
    • Their strong work ethic and drive may leave limited time for personal ...

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    103 reads

    Agility

    Agility

    Small companies or teams have the advantage of agility:

    • They can organize quickly, address issues immediately, and move at a much faster pace.
    • However, small teams don’t have t...

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    55 reads

    Common Big 5 Personality Traits of Innovators

    Common Big 5 Personality Traits of Innovators

    • Openness to New Ideas
    • High Conscientiousness
    • High disagreeableness (ornery, not easily dissuaded)
    • High IQ (Ability to synthesize infor...

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    279 reads

    AI Positive Benefits, Medicine, Man & Machine Partnership

    AI Positive Benefits, Medicine, Man & Machine Partnership

    • Most people who aren’t informed are afraid of AI.
    • Machines could have better bedside manners than human doctors.
    • AI could help patients stick to their physical therapy or nutritional p...

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    59 reads

    How does the current education model prevent innovation?

    The risk of cancelation discourages risk-takers.

    • Huberman keeps a secret hand-written file of everything he is afraid to speak about publicly and it’s getting much longer over time.

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    ANDREW HUBERMAN

    I censor myself at the level of deleting certain things but I don’t contort what I do talk about.

    ANDREW HUBERMAN

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    Apple vs. Google

    Apple vs. Google

    The differences between Google’s and Apple’s approaches to AI:

    • Google is superior in certain aspects because it can pool data for training AI
    • Apple, on the other hand, values p...

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    Quantum Internet

    Quantum Internet

    Quantum Internet solution:

    • Basically, it secures internet communications by changing the translation or language super fast so it can’t be intercepted.

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    67 reads

    Testing for Innovators, Silicon Valley

    Testing for Innovators, Silicon Valley

    People do indeed try to fake having innovative qualities. The amount of this behavior goes along with how the stock market is doing.

    Testing for innovators:

    • To figure o...

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    Reform & Institutions, Universities vs. Business

    Reform & Institutions, Universities vs. Business

    Can institutions be reformed? The role of a reformer is not a common one in society.

    Universities operate on outdated systems, but they still function, despite notable issues (like the New York subway.)

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    77 reads

    MARC ANDREESSEN

    The world is a very malleable place if you know what you want and you go for it with maximum energy and drive and passion the world will often reconfigure itself around you much more quickly and easily than you think.

    MARC ANDREESSEN

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    VICTOR HUGO

    Nothing is more powerful than an idea whose time has come.

    VICTOR HUGO

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    MARC ANDREESSEN

    Nobody ever shows up at a stock market low.

    MARC ANDREESSEN

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    MARC ANDREESSEN

    Religious impulses in our time don’t show up as overtly religious, they show up in a secularized form.

    MARC ANDREESSEN

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    Public key cryptography

    Public key cryptography

    The most trusted channel would put out a unique public cryptographic key, and any content can be checked against this key to make sure it’s real. Who’s gonna run this?

    • Government-run registries could turn into truth ...

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    Public vs. Elite

    Marc thinks that the public is more open and forgiving than ever.

    • The elites are leading cancel culture. It is an elite phenomenon disguised as a grassroots movement.

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    CURATED FROM

    CURATED BY

    refresh

    Traveler 🛫 | Gourmand 🍏

    Marc and Andrew Huberman talk about the double-edged sword of risk-taking, the capacity to navigate uncertainty, public trust, universities, politics and the regulation of AI.

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