Let's bring back the chess concept. You should not only plan for what your opponent will do next, but also plan your best response to this move. Well, if we are to go one step beyond, you should make such moves that your opponent doesn't have any good options. No matter what he does, you are still in better position. This was perfectly played out by Toranaga when he sent Mariko to Osaka. No matter how Ishido would have responded to the request of freeing the 'hostages', Toranaga would have gained an advantage. He simply gains better position WHEN his opponent responds (no matter HOW).
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What can we learn from the wisest daimyo in Shogun: Toranaga?
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