5: Gambler's Fallacy

A common misconception that can lead to poor decision making by assuming that a desired outcome is more likely due to past events.

Examples of Gambler's Fallacy:

• Choosing tails on a coin toss after heads were flipped three times in a row, even though both outcomes are equally likely
• Believing that a sequence of decisions will balance out, such as predicting the next roll of a dice or roulette wheel
• Feeling uneasy after answering the same letter choice multiple times in a row on a test
• Judges being more likely to deny asylum when they have previously approved an asylum seeker