5: Gambler's Fallacy - Deepstash
5: Gambler's Fallacy

5: Gambler's Fallacy

A common misconception that can lead to poor decision making by assuming that a desired outcome is more likely due to past events.

Examples of Gambler's Fallacy:

  • Choosing tails on a coin toss after heads were flipped three times in a row, even though both outcomes are equally likely
  • Believing that a sequence of decisions will balance out, such as predicting the next roll of a dice or roulette wheel
  • Feeling uneasy after answering the same letter choice multiple times in a row on a test
  • Judges being more likely to deny asylum when they have previously approved an asylum seeker

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yuyutsu

Content Curator | Absurdist | Amateur Gamer | Failed musician | Successful pessimist | Pianist |

This series explores 21 different cognitive mind traps, fallacies, biases and other phenomenon that exist within your brain. This series is inspired by Daniel Kahneman's "Thinking Fast and Slow."

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The odds are always fifty-fifty. But most of us anticipate better odds, or better luck, after a bad streak, as if now we are due for good luck.

This ‘Gambler’s Fallacy’ assumes that probability as a whole has memory, and if the coin is flipped ten times and shows ‘head...

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