Clear thinking starts with understanding the importance of mental models in simplifying complex problems

Probabilistic thinking aids in making decisions based on the likelihood of different outcomes.

Second-order thinking considers the long-term consequences and secondary effects of decisions.

Avoiding confirmation bias requires actively seeking out information that challenges your assumptions.

Focusing on process over outcome leads to better decision-making and continuous improvement.”

Mental resilience and adaptability are crucial for navigating uncertainty and change.

Using checklists can prevent oversight and ensure all necessary steps are considered.

First principles thinking involves breaking down problems to their fundamental truths to find innovative solutions

The concept of ‘Circle of Competence’ emphasizes focusing on areas where you have knowledge and expertise.

Recognising cognitive biases helps in avoiding errors in judgment and decision-making.

Understanding opportunity cost helps in evaluating the true cost of decisions and actions.

Marginal gains, or small improvements, compound over time to yield significant results.

The OODA Loop—Observe, Orient, Decide, Act—enhances decision-making speed and adaptability.

Avoiding sunk cost fallacy helps in making rational decisions based on current realities.

Inversion, or thinking backward, can help identify potential problems and prevent mistakes.

Thinking in terms of systems and understanding interdependencies improves strategic planning.

The Pareto Principle, or 80/20 rule, focuses efforts on the most impactful activities.

Effective problem-solving involves distinguishing between complex and complicated problems.

Continuous learning and curiosity drive intellectual growth and better decision-making

Mental models from diverse disciplines provide a toolkit for understanding and solving varied problems

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SHANE PARRISH

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