• They’re also glad to share their views with others, even though correct forecasts should be of such great value that no one would give them away gratis.
• They rarely look back to rigorously assess their record as forecasters.
Confident is the key word for describing members of this school.
For the “I don’t know” school, on the other hand, the
word—especially when dealing with the macro- futureis
guarded.Its adherents generally believe you can’t know the
future; you don’t have to know the future; and the proper goal
is to do the best possible job of investing in the absence of that
knowledge
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Join the “I don’t know” school and the results are more mixed. You’ll soon tire of saying “I don’t know” to friends and strangers alike. Aft er a while, even relatives will stop asking where you think the market’s going. You’ll never get to enjoy that one- in a-thousand moment when your forecast ...
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