"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Learn from both successes and failures to improve.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Dedicate time to learning new thinking methods.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Seek feedback to improve your judgment.</li></ul>

Continuous Learning

<ul><li>Use tools like First Principles to simplify problems.</li><li>Break decisions into smaller, manageable steps.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Apply these tools to make smarter choices quickly.</li></ul>

Mental Models

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Focus on the core of the problem, ignore irrelevant details.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Break down complex tasks into smaller steps.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Keep solutions simple and practical.</li></ul>

Simplifying Complexity

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Consider the future impact of your choices.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Map out how today’s decision affects tomorrow.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Weigh long-term risks and rewards before acting.</li></ul>

Long-Term Thinking

"Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment."

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<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Don’t settle for the first answer—explore other options.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Ask, “What else could I do here?” to find better choices.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Compare pros and cons of each option before deciding.</li></ul>

Questioning Alternatives

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Make small decisions daily to build better judgment.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Track how your decisions work out.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Use mental models consistently to enhance your thinking.</li></ul>

Improving Judgment

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Question everything you believe to test its truth.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Break down big problems into smaller, easier parts.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Think carefully about every decision you make.</li></ul>

Critical Thinking

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Don’t wait for perfect answers—clarity is enough.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Make decisions with the best info you have.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Trust yourself and adjust as you learn more.</li></ul>

Clarity Over Certainty

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Take a pause before making important decisions.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Focus on long-term benefits, not short-term comfort.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Develop a simple decision-making process you can follow.</li></ul>

Decision-Making

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Be aware of biases that affect your thinking (like only confirming your beliefs).</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Look at decisions from multiple perspectives.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Get input from others to spot hidden biases.</li></ul>

Avoiding Biases

"The more you know, the less you need to say."

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