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Making Sense Is Better Persuasion Than Being Right
- People tend to care about something making sense more than they care about something being right.
- It’s why we’re bad at forecasting and easily persuaded and why the economy is driven by stories.
- It’s not your fault. The world is complicated and everyone’s trying to fit what’s going on into the context of their own life experiences.
Two factors cause the gap between perception and reality.
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Factor 1: The Most Important Events Are the Hardest to Sample
The most important events – things that are counterintuitive, disruptive, and swayed by emotion more than calculation – tend to share a few traits that make gathering a good sample of data hard:
- They’re rare.
- The data is hard to collect.
- More data intuitively feels better.
This is a big problem and there is no solution to it other than giving yourself room for error in not only in your actions but your beliefs.
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Factor 2: We Underestimate how Much More Powerful Stories Are than Statistics
History makes clear that the winner isn’t the person who discovers an idea, but the one who sells it most persuasively.
Stories are more powerful than statistics because the most believable thing in the world is whatever takes the least amount of effort to contextualize your own life experiences.
People go astray when forgetting that storytelling is like exponential fuel, so a great idea told poorly can be a fraction as powerful as a mediocre idea told persuasively.
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