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Mathematician John Littlewood explained the presence of miracles through statistics. Littlewood's Law says we can expect a miracle every month. On the flip side, we can expect a disaster also as often.
We're currently experiencing a series of sequencing risk more often than usual, such as a pandemic, floods, earthquakes, and political meltdowns. Next year, a pandemic might have a 1% chance of occurrence, as could floods or political problems. But the idea stands that both bad and good things will happen this year and the years after that. It is not just current problem.
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If you are aware that 'black swan' events are not so unusual, you can plan if such an event happens. That is the benefit of a high savings rate - it is easier to overcome an unexpected obstacle.
But there are limits. If you lose a house to a wildfire, then you're not relying on short-term savings to recover but on the insurance company providing you with the coverage you paid for. However, pessimism gives you an awareness that bad things happen.
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Pessimism has its limits. When it comes to investing in your future, you should be an optimist. If people try to get better at solving the recessions, panics, and wars, the long-term odds are in an economy's favor.
For investing, it means that as long as you're moving forward by seeking solutions, your initial investment will grow as well as the other investments you continue to put into the market.
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SIMILAR ARTICLES & IDEAS:
"Two roads diverged in a yellow wood, and sorry I could not travel both…I took the one less traveled by, and..."
Leaders should choose a decision-making model before moving into problem-solving.
Good choices at defining moments on important matters make all the difference for people, organizations, and societies. Every time you are in front of a defining and complex problem, you have a pivotal choice to make in how to find solutions and execute decisions.
In the corporate world, employees need to communicate effectively for pitching ideas, and even to get one’s point across in meetings.
This is an art in which one has to be ...
When we use words and phrases like:
... we end up downplaying our own ideas. We need to be more assertive and speak with conviction.
By speaking clearly and maintaining eye contact, we can use words to hypnotize the audience.
Even our pauses in between our words can be used to gather our thoughts and make the listeners reflect on what you have just said.
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