Risk: Seeing around the corners

All differences in business models can create the potential for competitive risk exposure. This does not mean that a company should imitate its competitors, but that it should consider the risk when they have different strategies.

Risk analysis focuses all too often only on direct threats. The classic domino effects linked to supply chains include 

• disruptions in the availability of parts or raw materials
• changes in the cost structures of suppliers
• shifts in logistics costs

Indirect risks can also hide in distribution channels. It may include the inability to reach the end customers, new distribution costs or redefined business models. 

The most complex domino effect is the responses from customers.

The shift in buying patterns can create a typical cascading effect. Another is changed demand levels.

Considering the impact of a risk on a company and how it propagates through the valued chain can help management think through the change. For example, the risk posed by carbon regulation on the aluminum industry.