Timeline for Artificial Super Intelligence

In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI expert the following:

• Median optimistic year (10% likelihood) → 2022
  Median realistic year (50% likelihood) → 2040
  Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood) → 2075

So the median participant thinks it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI 25 years from now.