Timeline for Artificial Super Intelligence - Deepstash
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Timeline for Artificial Super Intelligence

In 2013, Vincent C. Müller and Nick Bostrom conducted a survey that asked hundreds of AI expert the following:

  • Median optimistic year (10% likelihood) → 2022
    Median realistic year (50% likelihood) → 2040
    Median pessimistic year (90% likelihood) → 2075

So the median participant thinks it’s more likely than not that we’ll have AGI 25 years from now.

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MORE IDEAS ON THIS

n it comes to developing supersmart AI, we’re creating something that will probably change everything, but in totally uncharted territory, and we have no idea what will happen when we get th

SCIENTIST DANNY HILLIS

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Intelligence Explosion

AI wouldn’t see ‘human-level intelligence’ as some important milestone — it’s only a relevant marker from our point of view — and wouldn’t have any reason to ‘stop’ at our level.

And given the advantages over us that even human intelligence-equivalent AGI would have, it’s p...

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94 reads

Where are we currently?

As of now, humans have conquered the lowest caliber of AI — ANI — in many ways, and it’s everywhere:

  • Cars are full of ani systems, from the computer that figures out when the Anti-Lock brakes kick in, to the computer that tunes the parameters of the fuel injection systems.
  • Goog...

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110 reads

Nanotechnology

If we conquer nanotechnology, the next step will be the ability to manipulate individual atoms, which are only one order of magnitude smaller.

Nanotechnology is an idea that comes up in almost everything you read about the future of AI. It’s the technology that works at the nano scale —...

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Introduction

  • Assuming that human scientific activity continues without major disruptions, artificial intelligence may become either the most positive transformation of our history or, as many fear, our most dangerous invention of all. 
  • AI research is on a steady path to d...

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The Road to Artificial General Intelligence

Most experts agree that there are three categories, or calibers, of AI development:

  • ANI: Artificial Narrow Intelligence. 1st intelligence caliber. AI that specializes in one area. 
  • AGI: Artificial General Intelligence: AI that reaches and then ...

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