Probabilistic thinking
In this particular situation (of a career change), it can be helpful to use a Bayesian casino.
A Bayesian casino is a thought experiment where you imagine walking up to a casino game, like roulette, and quantifying how much you would bet on any particular outcome.
Probabilistic thinking isn’t a predictor of the future. With any big career move, there are inevitably a lot of unknowns. There are no guarantees that any choice is going to be the right one. The Bayesian casino just helps you quantify your thinking based on the knowledge you have at this moment in time.
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Probabilistic thinking
Once you have narrowed down your options for a new career,, consider these questions: Which one would you bet on for being the better choice one year later? How much are you willing to bet on it?
Doing this exercise will not guarantee that any choice will be the right one.
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